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Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps
Brazil presents global fossil fuel, forest roadmaps
Edinburgh, 3 November (Argus) — Brazil's UN Cop 30 presidency today presented two international roadmaps intended to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and halt deforestation, offering practical pathways for countries with different starting points. The roadmaps propose short-term measures that countries could implement to accelerate action through to 2033, with key UN Cop climate summits serving as milestones. The presidency pledged during last year's summit in Belem to develop the roadmaps after countries failed to agree on the two issues. It reiterated today that the roadmaps will not be negotiated at Cop 31 in Antalya this year, but said the "political space for a frank conversation... should stay open". The fossil fuel roadmap draws on 267 contributions, including 21 submissions representing 115 parties to the Paris climate agreement. It breaks the transition into a series of actionable steps, beginning with a voluntary self-assessment tool through which countries can evaluate their "unique circumstances, structural conditions, exposure to fossil fuel dependence and transition capacity". The assessment would examine countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their ability to manage the transition across three themes — energy demand, energy supply and the broader economy. The aim is to help countries identify their respective profiles and existing strengths, the presidency said. The second step focuses on implementation, offering possible actions for countries with similar demand and supply profiles. Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, although the transition will require careful co-ordination, the presidency said. "Economies with high exposure and limited capacity have most to gain from avoiding new lock-in and stranded assets as their demand for energy services grows," the roadmap report said. "Economies with strong capacity have the means to move first." The presidency proposes advancing the roadmap through a "Transitioning Away From Fossil Fuels" agenda organised around three milestones linked to future global stocktakes (GSTs), which assess progress towards the goals of the 2015 Paris accord. Efforts should focus on institutions and long-term policy signals until 2028, when the second GST begins, the presidency said. The focus would shift towards transforming energy systems in 2028-30, when the collective goals agreed at Cop 28 are due and countries submit their next climate plans. The presidency recommends shifting greater attention to the supply side and scaling up solutions in 2031-33, alongside the third GST. Asked how Brazil intends to link the roadmap to the informal action agenda, a parallel process conducted alongside formal Cop negotiations, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni told Argus that the work began under that agenda last year. The presidency will release another report at Cop 31 detailing progress under the action agenda, she said. One role of the roadmap is to ensure countries do not lose sight of the Cop 28 consensus on transitioning away from fossil fuels and to highlight elements already in place to advance that commitment, Cop 30 president Andre Correa do Lago said. The roadmap also serves as an initial contribution to the next GST process, he said. The Cop 30 presidency also released a roadmap for stepping up efforts to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030. It identifies areas for action under national strategies — including conservation, sustainable forest management, agroforestry and the bioeconomy, as well as measures to combat deforestation and forest degradation. The presidency identified finance as one of the largest implementation gaps, as most tropical forests are in developing countries. Domestic public budgets accounted for 88.3pc of recorded forest finance in 2023, while international public finance provided only 3.4pc, it said. The forest roadmap sets out international actions and indicative milestones through to 2030. By Caroline Varin and Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US corn for ethanol use hits Sep expectation
US corn for ethanol use hits Sep expectation
Houston, 2 November (Argus) — US corn for ethanol use in September rose on the year by 0.6pc to 438mn bushels (bu), according to the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, matching Argus' projected level for the month. US corn for ethanol use rose in September in part because of increased ethanol production, which rose by 0.4pc on the year to 31.7mn bl during September, according to Argus estimates. Ethanol derived from corn also increased by 0.6pc from the prior year to reach 30.3mn bl, according to Argus estimates. Sorghum use for September, meanwhile, is estimated by Argus at 7.4mn bu — down by 28pc from the same month last year — accounting for the remaining 1.4mn bl of ethanol produced. Argus estimates October ethanol production fell year-over-year for the first time since July 2025, down by 3.3pc to 33mn bl. Corn use for the month is estimated at 458mn bu, and sorghum use is pegged at 7.5mn bu, respective declines of 3.8pc and 7.9pc from a year prior. By Joseph Crosby US corn use for ethanol production mn bushels Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Triple crisis threatens France’s electrification drive
Triple crisis threatens France’s electrification drive
Growing pressures mean long-term energy security goals may fall prey to short-term political expediency, writes Rhys Talbot London, 30 October (Argus) — France faces fiscal, political and social crises that could threaten its energy transition drive and leave it dependent on imported fossil fuels for longer, as high borrowing costs put politicians off the investments required to electrify. France is an energy outlier in the G7 — its long-standing nuclear energy policy means that fossil fuels already make up the lowest share of final energy consumption in the group. But it remains significantly dependent on oil in transport, while natural gas is still widely used for heating and contributes to higher electricity prices thanks to cross-border pricing and limited domestic generation. With six months left in President Emmanuel Macron's second term, red lights are flashing over France's fiscal solidity. All indebted western nations face the struggle of rising interest rates as they roll over debt issued at bargain rates in the 2010s, but this is worse for France because of its high indebtedness. Its deficit has remained stubbornly high for six years, and its debt-to-GDP ratio keeps creeping up. Merely stabilising government debt by 2032 would require cutting spending and increasing taxes by a net €125bn ($140bn), a government report estimated in June, and this figure is likely even higher now thanks to rate rises. But the emergence of new social movements combining student protests, yellow vest-style cost-of-living concerns and urban riots reflects widespread public anger that makes any fiscal consolidation politically untenable. With no majority in parliament, the government can only pass budgets including unsustainably large deficits to placate different interest groups, until 2027's election passes the task of tackling the problem to a new leader with a fresh mandate. Right-wing Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) party has reinforced its polling lead thanks to the disorder of recent weeks. But whoever wins the next election, the combination of social anger that can only be allayed by more spending, and market conditions that make funding that spending more difficult, means that something may have to give. Electrification plans could be a tempting target. France had planned to cut its reliance on fossil fuels further for geopolitical, climate and economic reasons. But wider electrification through investments such as the six planned EPR2 nuclear reactors, or 10GW of offshore wind, faces costs that reach into the hundreds of billions of euros, while €200bn has already been earmarked out to 2040 for grid upgrades. And the cost of these planned investments is highly sensitive to interest rates. Hydrogen firm Hy24 investment director Pierre Jeremie calculates that the average cost of nuclear energy produced by the EPR2s would increase by €12-20/MWh for each one-point increase in rates. "The brake on electrification, which we don't talk about, is OATs [French government bond yields] at 4.8pc," he said earlier this month. Yields have since risen further, last week breaching the 5pc mark for the first time since 2002. Power play None of these investments would bring down electricity prices within the next president's five-year mandate, instead setting the foundations to replace ageing nuclear reactors that could start to shut down from the late 2030s. There is no pressing need for more supply tomorrow — the French power system is structurally oversized, and it exported more electricity last year than any country in history. Cutting spending for the long term could free up funding to reduce retail prices in the short term, offering a solution for politicians facing cost-of-living concerns. The RN has "very well understood" this dynamic, Columbus Consulting partner Nicolas Goldberg says. It has trumpeted its desire to end offshore wind projects and cancel energy efficiency schemes that fund electrification. But expensive nuclear plants could also make a tempting target, Goldberg suggests. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Climate resilience races up countries’ agendas
Climate resilience races up countries’ agendas
The need for adaptation has gained significance for developed countries, giving the topic more traction, writes Georgia Gratton London, 30 October (Argus) — Climate resilience, and adapting to growing weather extremes, has taken on further significance in light of record-breaking heatwaves and ongoing disruption from one of the strongest El Nino events the world has experienced. El Nino effects are set to continue into 2027, while the UN has warned that the world will almost inevitably overshoot the Paris agreement goal to limit a global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This firmly places climate resilience in the spotlight, just ahead of the UN Cop 31 climate summit, set for 9-20 November in Antalya, Turkey. Cop summits typically focus on mitigation — cutting emissions — and adaptation, meaning adjusting where possible to the effects of climate change. Adaptation can play second fiddle in Cop outcomes, and is often framed as an issue for the most vulnerable countries, such as low-lying, small island developing nations. But the need for adaptation has risen up developed countries' agendas, possibly opening the door for the topic to gain greater traction in formal negotiations. Adaptation discussions at the halfway-point of technical climate talks in Bonn, Germany, in June stalled, as countries could not reach an agreement, including on finance for adaptation. Proposals for work on the global adaptation goal "sparked strong disagreement", according to think-tank IISD's Earth Negotiations Bulletin. Adaptation-related items were pushed through for further discussions at Cop 31. A note from UN climate officials this week reiterated that "adaptation will remain a central priority", including discussions on financial support for developing countries. The officials encouraged "pragmatic engagement". Developing countries have submitted 81 national adaptation plans in recent years, while developed nations are working to improve policies. The EU this week released a climate resilience framework, asking its member states to prepare for a 3°C rise in temperature above pre-industrial levels by 2100. "Almost no part of our continent was spared from damaging climate extremes" this summer, the European Commission said this week. European power systems were particularly affected , as a lack of rainfall constrained hydropower, while low river levels shut nuclear plants and prevented deliveries of oil products and coal. The UK is legally required to produce adaptation plans. It should prepare for "intensifying heat, growing flood risk, rising drought and wildfire risk", the country's independent advisory Climate Change Committee said this year. It warned that the UK energy system is at risk from flooding, high winds, heat and drought. Economic costs growing Outside Cops, countries will be looking to avoid the financial implications of failing to adapt. Even wealthy countries will be reluctant to add to a fiscal burden by stepping in to guarantee or insure property where the private sector will not. "The economic case for action is compelling. Material losses from weather and climate-related events are rising sharply," the commission said. Annual economic losses from climate extremes in the EU are at around €50bn ($56bn), but the 2026 heatwaves cost an estimated €113bn across 30 countries, it said. Developing countries are submitting requests to the loss and damage fund that they agreed at Cop 27 to set up to aid the most vulnerable countries in dealing with the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The fund's board said that 119 countries have submitted requests totalling $2.8bn, although decisions are not expected until after Cop 31, and the fund currently only holds around $820mn. Governments have linked climate resilience and adaptation to a broader quest for security and sovereignty. Climate resilience must "become a defining feature of Europe's competitiveness, security and prosperity", the commission said. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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