Rates for 2mn bl very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loading on the US Gulf coast have fallen steeply since Opec+ announced production cuts on 2 April, lowering rates by up to 31pc as a dropoff in European demand for US crude also has added to ample tonnage.
The bellwether US Gulf coast-China VLCC rate on Thursday was down by 19pc to $9.25mn lump sum including $250,000 load-port fees since 3 April, equivalent to $4.39/bl for WTI and $4.80/bl for Mars, with shipowners' daily earnings for scrubber-fitted VLCCs, represented in the time-charter equivalent (TCE) rate, down to $46,243/d from $63,803/d over the same period.
Asia-bound VLCC cargoes that were on the market in early April are scheduled to be loaded in May, when the more than 1mn b/d Opec+ output cuts begin.
Over the same time since early April, the US Gulf coast-Europe VLCC rate has fallen by 31pc to $4.25mn lump sum, or $2.02/bl for WTI, including load-port fees, with depressed European demand for US crude adding to the downward pressure on tanker rates.
Crude tanker demand on the US Gulf coast could soon get a boost. Vortexa data show 68pc of Opec+ producers' crude exports over the 12 months ending in March, about 18.2mn b/d, was delivered to Asian markets, which may force refiners there to look to the Atlantic basin for extra barrels. With the end of the French refinery strikes, competition between European and Asian refiners for US crude could lift VLCC rates.
The rebound in VLCC demand is more likely to be for cargoes loading in June than in May, a shipbroker said.
