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26/01/13

Supply to push WTI below $50/bl in 4Q: EIA

Supply to push WTI below $50/bl in 4Q: EIA

Calgary, 13 January (Argus) — The US light sweet benchmark will fall below $50/bl later this year and into 2027 as a global crude surplus persists, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $52.21/bl across 2026, EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), a 79¢/bl upward revision from its December forecast. WTI has hovered near $58/bl in the early days of 2026, but EIA expects that to steadily fall to $49.34/bl in the fourth quarter. WTI will then bottom out at $49/bl in first-quarter 2027 and average $50.36/bl across the year, according to EIA. The agency made similar revisions to Brent crude, which is now forecast to average $55.87/bl in 2026 and $54.02/bl in 2027. Crude output from the US will fall from a record high 13.61mn b/d in 2025 to 13.59mn b/d in 2026, EIA predicts. A slowdown in drilling activity will outpace drilling productivity gains, and output will fall further to 13.25mn b/d in 2027 as US producers contend with rising global supply. "Global liquid fuels production growth in 2026 is driven by crude oil production growth in Opec+, while production growth in 2027 is driven by countries outside of Opec +, primarily in South America," EIA said. The agency expects global output at 107.65mn b/d in 2026, a 220,000 b/d upward revision from last month's STEO and up from 106.28mn b/d estimated for 2025. Production is expected to climb further to 108.18mn b/d in 2027. Consumption will continue to trail production this year, but the gap will narrow somewhat in 2027, EIA predicts. Consumption is expected to average 104.82mn b/d in 2026, a 350,000 b/d reduction from last month's STEO, before rising to 106.09mn b/d across 2027. The corresponding global surplus is expected to be 2.83mn b/d in 2026 and 2.09mn b/d in 2027. EIA assumes sanctions on Venezuela remain in place through 2027. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US consumer price inflation steady at 2.7pc in Dec


26/01/13
News
26/01/13

US consumer price inflation steady at 2.7pc in Dec

Houston, 13 January (Argus) — US consumer inflation held steady in December as gasoline prices fell and food increases accelerated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The consumer price index (CPI) rose at a 2.7pc annual rate in December, unchanged from November and in line with expectations in a Trading Economics survey of analysts. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy, rose at 2.6pc pace in December, also unchanged from the prior month. CPI peaked in 2025 at 3pc in September and in 2024 at 3.5pc in March. Inflation has gradually slowed as the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates relatively elevated, prompting President Donald Trump to frequently deride Fed chair Jerome Powell for being "too slow" to cut rates. The US Justice Department on Friday launched a criminal investigation of Powell for his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June about renovations to Fed office buildings. Powell, in a statement posted online Sunday, said the threat of criminal charges stems from the Fed "setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president". On a monthly basis, prices rose in December by 0.3pc seasonally adjusted, following no changes in the prior two months. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 97.2pc probability the Federal Reserve will hold its target rate unchanged at its meeting at the end of the month. A week ago, odds of holding rates steady were 82.3pc with a 17.7pc probability for a quarter-point cut. Gasoline prices drop Energy prices rose by 2.3pc in December, compared with a 4.2pc annual gain in November. Gasoline prices fell at a 3.4pc annual pace after rising by 0.9pc in November, while piped gas services rose by 10.8pc annually in December following a 9.1pc gain in the prior month. US food price increases accelerated to a 3.1pc pace in December from an annual 2.6pc gain in November. Shelter rose by 3.2pc, up from 3pc in the prior month. Services less energy services, a measure of core services prices, rose by 3pc, also unchanged from the prior month. Prices for used cars and trucks rose at a 1.6pc annual pace in December, slowing from a 3.6pc gain in November. New car prices rose at a 0.3pc pace, slowing from a 0.6pc annual gain in November. Medical care services rose at a 3.5pc annual pace in December, accelerating from a 3.3pc gain in the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump calls off talks with Iran


26/01/13
News
26/01/13

Trump calls off talks with Iran

Washington, 13 January (Argus) — US president Donald Trump said he called off talks with Tehran in the latest attempt to pressure the Iranian government beset by nationwide protests. "I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS," Trump posted on his social media platform on Tuesday, urging the demonstrations to carry on. Trump said on 11 January that Iran's leaders had reached out to him to negotiate, without providing details. Oman has communicated Iran's openness to talks, according to the White House. Public demonstrations began in several Iranian cities on 28 December in protest at deteriorating economic conditions, and unrest has escalated in scope and severity, particularly over the past week or so, which has triggered a crackdown by state security forces. Trump on Monday threatened to impose an extra 25pc tariff on imports from countries engaged in business deals with Iran. China is Iran's largest trade partner and the primary destination for Iranian crude, which reaches independent refiners through a well-established network of traders and tankers designed to avoid US sanctions. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Italy's Ludoil in talks to buy Priolo refinery


26/01/13
News
26/01/13

Italy's Ludoil in talks to buy Priolo refinery

Milan, 13 January (Argus) — Italian oil storage and distribution company Ludoil is in exclusive talks to buy the country's biggest oil refinery, the 320,000 b/d Priolo, in a deal that would lead to the plant's gradual decarbonisation. Ludoil said it is "involved in a process of due diligence with a view to the possible acquisition" of the refinery, on the island of Sicily, from Cyprus-based private equity firm GOI Energy. Should the acquisition go through, Ludoil will gradually rejig production to offer low carbon products including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and bioethanol, it said. GOI has only owned the Priolo plant since early 2023, when it bought the refinery from Russia's Lukoil in a deal involving, via supply and offtake agreements, trading firm Trafigura. GOI beat out a rival bid from Vitol and Crossbridge, sources at the time said. The deal was signed off by the Italian government under special powers on the back of commitments by GOI to maintain employment levels, diversify crude sources and invest in green hydrogen infrastructure . But a source familiar with the matter said GOI had become unhappy with the terms of the crude supply arrangement with Trafigura and was looking for a way out. The source said the refinery needed heavy investment to remain competitive. The Priolo complex combines refining, gasification and electricity cogeneration plants. It is considered a strategic asset by Rome, as it accounts for nearly 20pc of Italy's refining capacity. In its statement, Ludoil also said it has contract for the loading and sale of oil products from the Priolo refinery, which began on Monday, 12 January. Milan-based Ludoil operates a range of oil product distribution services designated by Rome as strategic national assets. It runs nine oil storage sites and 156 retail stations in Italy, and supplies Rome's Fiumicino airport with most of its jet fuel. By Stephen Jewkes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Urea vessel in Venezuela updates destination signal


26/01/13
News
26/01/13

Urea vessel in Venezuela updates destination signal

Amsterdam, 13 January (Argus) — The Hongli 8 appears close to leaving Jose port in Venezuela, loaded with around 30,000t of urea, which would mark the first shipment of urea since the US raid and capture of the country's president on 3 January, according to vessel tracking data providers. The vessel has updated its destination for Panama, set to arrive on 17 January, according to vessel tracking data from Kpler and others. But there was no confirmation from the parties linked to the vessel. The cargo is understood to be loaded and ultimately destined for the Mexican west coast. The US raid and capture of Nicolas Maduro rocked Venezuela at the start of the month and prompted a spike in already elevated freight rates from the country's ports, complicating urea flows . Producers slashed urea prices in a bid to maintain sales liquidity. But the situation has since calmed and the US has altered its stance regarding restrictions on Venezuela's crude sales, prompting speculation that a similar approach may be extended to other commodities. Venezuelan urea typically heads to Brazil, as well as some other nearby markets and Mexico. Venezuela is home to three major urea facilities, with a combined operating capacity of up to 2.2mn t/yr of granular and prilled urea. But exports have varied widely in recent years, with Argus ' consulting arm estimating Venezuelan urea exports at just over 400,000t in 2025, down from over 700,000t in 2020-21. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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