独立的国际能源及大宗商品价格评估机构
由行业专家做出的价格预测及前瞻性研究
提供有关影响全球能源及大宗商品市场的动态与分析
中东冲突——能源市场风险与大宗商品影响
阿格斯中国化肥会议
2026年11月17日 - 19日
中国 北京
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EU plans one-year delay to methane law for oil, gas
EU plans one-year delay to methane law for oil, gas
Brussels, 28 September (Argus) — The European Commission is assessing legal options to delay by one year key monitoring provisions in its 2024 methane emissions regulation (MER) for oil, gas and coal imports due to enter into force in 2027, according to an official source. EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen is expected to present the proposal before an EU leaders' meeting on 15 October. A Commission official said Brussels is examining whether to postpone "some" parts of the MER. "That is now ongoing at technical level," the official said today. The moves comes after French president Emmanuel Macron last week called for a one-year postponement . The Commission at the time said it would examine Macron's proposal. But energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen had said that Brussels would consider additional measures only if it identified risks to energy security or supply. Under the MER, oil, gas and coal importers must show that the fossil fuels coming to the EU were produced in a jurisdiction with monitoring, reporting and verification requirements equivalent to those applied in the bloc. The rule was due to apply to all contracts signed or renewed after 4 August 2024. The Commission in July had already put forward formal recommendations that member states refrain from imposing penalties for non-compliance with the MER between 2027 and 2029. But the oil and gas industry continued to ask for a three-year delay to the regulation. The Commission official today said that, in the absence of an energy supply emergency, the Commission is unlikely to use emergency legislative powers. The EU last used such powers in 2022 to cap power market revenues at €180/MWh and impose a temporary solidarity contribution on excess profits in the oil, gas, coal and refining sectors. The official said a delay would have the greatest short-term political impact compared to energy demand saving and other measures because the regulation's reporting obligations are due to take effect on 1 January 2027. EU energy ministers are expected to discuss the methane regulation and energy security issues at an informal meeting in Dublin on 29 September. But no decisions are expected. More than 10 member states earlier this year said they were considering backing an initiative led by the Czech Republic government calling on the Commission to review the regulation and delay its implementation. The regulation has also been a major point of contention between the EU and the US in recent months. And both European LNG buyers and US exporters have repeatedly complained that uncertainty over how to comply with this regulation is holding back the signing of long-term LNG deals. In a letter to ministers, Jorgensen said EU gas storage is exceptionally low but there are "currently no immediate risks to security of supply". He also urged EU states to make use of flexibility in the gas storage regulation by reducing the filling target to 80pc to alleviate immediate pressure on refilling costs. But he also noted governments should consider taking or continuing to take measures that can sustain injections or reduce gas and electricity demand. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump still thinking 'seriously' about export ban
Trump still thinking 'seriously' about export ban
Washington, 28 September (Argus) — President Donald Trump said on Sunday that a ban on diesel exports remains a top option the administration is considering to bring down prices of the fuel, despite the potential for the policy to raise gasoline prices. "We're thinking about it very seriously," Trump said in a televised interview in Illinois on Sunday. "That can often times lead to a little bit of an increase on gasoline for cars, so we're looking at it very seriously. We may do it." Trump called for a diesel export ban on 22 September, joining a growing group of Republicans who believe cutting off exports of the fuel would quickly lower diesel prices that hit a record high last week of $6.53/USG. US energy secretary Chris Wright subsequently downplayed the idea of an outright ban, saying any government restrictions on diesel flows would likely be voluntary. Trump said last week he would decide soon whether to implement diesel export restrictions. A diesel export ban would initially put 25¢/USG of downward pressure on retail diesel prices each week it is in effect, the bank Goldman Sachs said in a research note on 26 September, reducing an incentive for US refiners to maximize production. That downward pressure on diesel prices would intensify once storage space runs out, at which point refiners would likely curtail output of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, putting 30¢/USG of upward pressure each week on gasoline prices, Goldman said. Total US ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) inventories were 96.4mn bl in the week ended 18 September, down by 14pc from a year earlier . Louisiana, Alabama and Nebraska last week temporarily waived restrictions on highway use of untaxed diesel fuel in response to high prices. Ohio lawmakers this week are considering waiving the state's 39¢/USG tax on gasoline and 47¢/USG tax on diesel for 90 days. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Foreign oil operators see growing Brazil appeal
Foreign oil operators see growing Brazil appeal
Rio de Janeiro, 28 September (Argus) — US president Donald Trump claimed this week that "the biggest oil companies in the world are going in" to Venezuela, but leading private-sector firms continue to see Brazil as their prime opportunity. The country's abundant deepwater resources, stable regulatory environment and favourable geography make it an attractive investment destination for leading international oil companies, as wars and uncertainty continue to rattle global oil markets. Executives at this week's ROG.e conference in Rio de Janeiro were only too eager to talk up Brazil's advantages. Shell is the biggest private-sector producer in Brazil, with equity output of about 500,000 b/d. Chief executive Wael Sawan said growing disruption from the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran wars will present a "multi-month challenge to supplies" globally, but he saw Brazil as a winner. "Brazil has the optionality and flexibility to not just support Brazilians but also support the rest of the world in the export of energy," he said. Led by state-controlled Petrobras, Brazil's upstream producers pushed crude output to a record 4.5mn b/d in July, according to hydrocarbon regulator ANP. The country has redirected crude exports to new Asian markets this year, driven by reduced demand from China, and to Europe thanks in part to a 50pc cut to a temporary 12pc crude export tax under an agreement between the EU and Mercosur trade bloc. "I was quite happy to have big production in Brazil to fill my European refineries," TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said. BP vice-president for upstream Gordon Birrell said the world is entering a new upstream era defined by the need to meet growing demand while building more resilient energy systems. "For BP and the wider industry, Brazil represents a great opportunity in the new upstream era," Birrell said. Petrobras chief executive Magda Chambriard told the conference the company is nearing record crude output of 3mn b/d, and that its increased production and technological development is helping to push back Brazil's production peak to 2034-35. Brazilian state-run energy research agency Epe currently forecasts a national production peak of 5.1mn b/d in 2032. Eyes on the frontier Petrobras is betting on new frontiers such as the equatorial margin off the northern coast to keep up production levels as pre-salt output naturally declines. It began drilling in the environmentally sensitive region last year following an extensive licensing process, and hopes next year to prove up the commerciality of hydrocarbons it has found there. Foreign firms are also eyeing Brazil's new deepwater frontiers as opportunities for further growth. Shell has "appetite to continue to grow beyond our current positions", Sawan said. ExxonMobil hopes to bring its Guyana expertise to Brazil's equatorial margin, where it holds 10 exploration licences with Petrobras. "We want to be a part of that next chapter that's written in Brazil," senior vice-president for deepwater Hunter Farris said. But foreign executives also warned that maintaining a stable fiscal and regulatory environment is key to remaining attractive to investors. The temporary 12pc tax on crude exports has rattled producers, while Brazil started taxing dividends this year, and will introduce a selective "sin tax" covering oil from 2027 as part of a broad reform — factors that "might jeopardise future investments", Repsol Sinopec Brasil's deputy chief financial officer, Gilberta Lucchesi, said. TotalEnergies' Brazil country chair, Olivier Bahabanian, flagged up difficulties in obtaining environmental permits, which led his firm to exit the equatorial margin in 2020: "Not having the certainty that you will get that licence, even if you do the work properly, is not compatible with the business of exploration." By Constance Malleret Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
India’s steel boom redraws global coal, coke trade
India’s steel boom redraws global coal, coke trade
Bali, 28 September (Argus) — India's expanding steel industry is set to reshape seaborne metallurgical coal and coke trade, with rising steel capacity driving higher imports while buyers diversify sourcing across Australia, Russia, the US, Mozambique and Indonesia. India's steel production has risen to around 169mn t in 2026 from 104mn t in 2021, while installed capacity has reached about 220mn t, Vasudev Pamnani, director of ¡Energy Natural Resources said at CT Asia 2026. Capacity is expected to approach 300mn t by 2030, creating additional demand for imported steelmaking raw materials. India consumes around 175mn t/yr of coking coal, but domestic supply accounts for only about 20mn t, leaving steelmakers heavily dependent on imports. Total coking coal and PCI imports are projected to reach around 120mn t by 2030, comprising roughly 90mn t of coking coal and 30mn t of PCI. Import sourcing is also shifting. Australia's share of India's coking coal supply has declined as buyers increasingly source from Russia, the US and Mozambique. Russian PCI has gained particularly strongly on competitive pricing and suitable quality. Metallurgical coke is following a similar growth path. India imported around 4mn t in the first seven months of 2026, putting full-year imports on track to reach about 6.5mn t. Imports could remain around 6mn-7mn t by 2030 as steelmakers compare imported coke with the cost of producing coke locally from imported coal. Indonesia has emerged as a key supplier, accounting for around 2.7mn t of India's coke imports in the first seven months of 2026. Competitive pricing, proximity and lower anti-dumping duties relative to some other origins have supported its rapid gains. Indonesia's expanding coke capacity could further reshape regional trade flows and potentially challenge China's position as the world's largest coke exporter. China, meanwhile, remains central to the broader seaborne market, with Shanxi supply disruptions tightening domestic coking coal availability and supporting international prices. For Indian buyers, delivered cost remains the key consideration. Freight, coal quality, blending requirements, anti-dumping duties and the cost of domestic coke production will determine the competitiveness of different origins. India's steel expansion is therefore creating a structural source of demand for seaborne coal and coke, while diversification of supply is opening opportunities for producers across a wider range of origins. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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