由行业专家做出的价格预测及前瞻性研究
中东局势升级下的全球大宗商品市场：供应链与价格重构
直播时间：2026年3月12日（周四）14:00 （回看已生成）
会议语言：中文（运费部分英文）
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提供有关影响全球能源及大宗商品市场的动态与分析
中东冲突——能源市场风险与大宗商品影响
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US 'shovel ready' on Brazil rare earths: Panel
US 'shovel ready' on Brazil rare earths: Panel
Sao Paulo, 10 June (Argus) — The US wants to work in "warp speed" to secure Brazil's rare earths and other critical minerals, a panelist familiar with White House operations said at a market event in the country's capital Brasilia yesterday. The US is "shovel ready" to deepen its partnership with Brazil, specially regarding rare earth elements, said Eurasia Group managing director for the Americas Christopher Garman, during a critical minerals seminar held by Brazil's mining institute Ibram. The White House had — according to the panelist — identified Brazil and Malaysia as possible partners on rare earths because their reserves are mostly found in ionic clay, which is easier to process than other deposits. The US selected Brazil, Garman said, as shown by actions including the $2.8bn acquisition of Brazilian heavy rare earth producer Serra Verde, which followed $560mn in financing for Serra Verde and for soon-to-be producer Aclara Resources . "Donald Trump will continue to view Brazil pragmatically because of the value of its mineral assets," Garman said. He added that neither the newly reimposed US tariffs on Brazil nor the recent classification of local organised crime groups as terrorists signals a change in Trump's stance towards Brasilia. "They were parallel decisions that were being worked on for a long time." Mauricio Lyrio, a former ambassador and Brazil's current secretary for climate, energy and environment, agreed. "We are seeing geopolitics dictate most decisions related to Brazilian critical minerals," Lyrio said at the same panel, noting that Brazil's mineral assets gain value when conflicts and geopolitical issues arise elsewhere because of its good relations with every UN nation. "Brazil can seal cooperation agreements on every mineral with every country, which is key in this day and age." Both panelists said the quality of Brazil's critical mineral reserves and its technical mining expertise give the country an advantage in negotiations, but time is crucial. Brazil holds the world's second-largest rare earth reserves, but produced less than 1pc of the total global output. "Brazil has a massive opportunity in front of itself, but we need to have a very strong sense of urgency in order to capitalize on it," Lyrio said. "Brazil needs to dictate the terms, not react to other people's will." By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
TMO wheat prices to turn Turkish buyers to imports
TMO wheat prices to turn Turkish buyers to imports
London, 10 June (Argus) — Wheat buyers in Turkey are likely to turn to wheat imports — despite an ample domestic harvest this year — with the country's grain importer TMO's sales price for milling wheat, although the difference between domestic and import markets is likely to push up the import licence value. TMO has set the price for its sales of the country's domestic crop at 18,500 Turkish lira/t ($401/t) on 1 June, which would come into effect from October. The firm has planned to buy domestic wheat from farmers at TL16,500/t. A comparable cif price for wheat imports based on the domestic sales price would be about $317/t at discharge ports, based on the sales price, an inward processing regime (IPR) licence fee at about $65/t and unloading costs at ports. The import price ceiling is much higher than wheat prices in international markets at present, which is likely to draw Turkish buyers to wheat imports. Russian new-crop wheat was, for example, offered at $256/t cif Mersin this week for shipment in August. That said, the gap between the import and domestic markets would encourage importers to bid for rights and capacity to import wheat into the country with no import tax, pushing up market values for the IPR licence. The licence could become more valuable than the equivalent of $65/t between now and October, shrinking at least in part the import margin, market participants said. TMO could also introduce an import ban to prioritise distribution and consumption of domestic wheat. Market participants have waited for an import ban since early May. But an outright import ban is likely to damage the country's flour export market. Egyptian flour exporters took shares of key export markets such as Syria away from Turkey when TMO last banned flour imports in 2024, according to market participants. Turkish farmers could produce 20.5mn t of wheat in 2026-27 (June-May), up from 16.5mn t in 2025-26, according to Argus estimates. The country is therefore expected to require less wheat imports in 2026-27 at 4mn t, down from 7.3mn t in 2025-26. Russia supplied 5.2mn t of Turkey's total wheat imports at 5.7mn t in June 2025-April 2026, customs data show. By Erik Metaliaj Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US inflation accelerates to 3-year high in May
US inflation accelerates to 3-year high in May
Houston, 10 June (Argus) — US inflation quickened to an annual 4.2pc in May, a three-year high, led by gains in energy prompted by the Mideast Gulf war. The consumer price index (CPI) rose from 3.8pc in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics expected a median gain of 4.2pc. "May could mark the peak for headline CPI, although inflation will be slow to decline, keeping the Fed on prolonged hold for most of this year," Oxford Economics said in a note, citing recent declines in gasoline prices. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by 2.9pc in May following a gain of 2.8pc the prior month, the BLS said. The energy index rose by 23.5pc in May from a year prior, following a gain of 17.9pc in April. Immediately after the report, Fed funds futures markets gave 98.2pc odds Fed policymakers will hold the target rate unchanged next week at its next policy meeting, and a nearly 69pc probability the Fed will hike its target rate by at least a quarter point by the end of the year. The gasoline index rose by 40.5pc in May from the year prior, compared with 28.4pc in April, the BLS said. Fuel oil rose by 58.9pc in May compared with a 54.3pc gain the prior month. Utility gas service rose by 3pc in May, unchanged from the prior month. Electricity rose by 5.9pc in May, slowing from 6.1pc in April. Food increased by 3.1pc in May, slowing from 3.2pc in April. Fruits and vegetables rose by 6.1pc and meats, poultry and fish and eggs rose by 1.8pc in May. New vehicles increased by 0.2pc in May, unchanged from the prior month. Costs of used cars and vehicles fell by 2pc in May, following a 2.7pc decline in April. Shelter rose by 3.4pc in May, slowing from a 3.3pc gain the prior month. Transportation services rose by 4.1pc compared with a 4.3pc gain the prior month. Airline fares rose by 26.7pc in May following a 20.7pc gain in April. Seasonally adjusted, CPI rose by a monthly 0.5pc in May, slowing from a 0.6pc gain in April and a 0.9pc gain in March. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Bunker lead times grow since US–Iran war began
Bunker lead times grow since US–Iran war began
Sao Paulo, 10 June (Argus) — Shipowners and traders have been booking spot bunker fuel supplies further in advance since the start of the Iran–US conflict, according to data collected by Argus . The longer lead times, between the placing of a bunker fuel order and the fuel being supplied, reflect concerns about potential supply disruptions and strategies to deal with price volatility. Disruption to shipping through and around the strait of Hormuz has encouraged buyers to secure fuel as far as four to six weeks ahead rather than risk encountering shortages, market participants said. Argus ' bunker assessments are typically for deliveries with a maximum of 9-12 days and up to 14 days for certain African ports. The shift reflects concerns about reduced availability, with around 20pc of global crude having previously transited the strait now missing and therefore restricting supply of bunker grades. Higher freight costs have also reduced the economic incentive for suppliers to import fuel, which further reduced availability. Very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices have strengthened sharply across major bunkering hubs since the start of the US-Iran war, reflecting tightening feedstock availability and growing supply concerns. Delivered VLSFO indications in Rotterdam have rose by around 45pc from 28 February to 31 May, prices in Panama increased by 49pc and in Singapore by 47pc. The tightening market has been particularly evident in Fujairah, the world's fourth-largest bunkering hub, where an acute supply shortage has left most suppliers without prompt VLSFO availability until mid-June. Market participants said disruptions to regional feedstock flows and the loss of supply from Kuwait's al-Zour refinery sharply reduced local blending activity, pushing Fujairah VLSFO premiums to record highs of $500-700/t against front-month Singapore cargo values in early June. The change in buying patterns has been happening worldwide. Delivery times for VLSFO in Singapore have extended to about 10-15 days forward in some cases, depending on supplies given tight blendstock availability, traders said this week. Typical delivery periods of about 7-10 days forward remain possible. Singapore loadings for low-sulphur marine gasoil (LSMGO) have also slowed, with market participants expecting this to ease only in the second half of June. LSMGO supplies are tight because of delays in cargo arrivals from South Korea, and most current availability will go towards previously booked orders. The lead time for high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has been steady at around 4-5 days, as supplies are ample in Singapore. In Gibraltar, the average lead time in the three months before the war started was around five days. This is now 10 days. In Rotterdam the average booking period is up to 10 days from seven. In South America, rising vessel traffic through the Panama Canal has increased congestion and lengthened waiting times. The tighter transit window has pushed bunker buyers in Balboa and Cristobal to secure fuel further in advance, with market participants reporting a shift away from prompt procurement toward longer lead-time bookings to ensure product availability and align deliveries with delayed canal crossings. The average bunker fuel lead time in the Panama Canal increased to 14 days in March-May, from 10 days in the three months ending 28 February. In Brazilian ports, longer lead times have also been driven by rising fuel oil export flows to Singapore, where demand for Brazilian supply has increased because of the disruption linked to the strait of Hormuz. The additional export pull has reduced feedstock availability for VLSFO blending in Brazil, tightening prompt supply at key ports like Santos and Paranagua. Santos' average bunker fuel lead times increased to 10 days in March-May, from eight days in the three months to 28 February. In Paranagua, average lead times rose to 13 days from 10 days over the same period. By Gabriel Tassi Lara, Natália Coelho and Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
中东局势升级下的全球大宗商品市场：供应链与价格重构
中东局势升级下的全球大宗商品市场：供应链与价格重构
US Biofuels Feedstock Markets Reignited
US Biofuels Feedstock Markets Reignited
Global rare earths markets in transition
Global rare earths markets in transition
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