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Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices
Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices
Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia is likely to expand its mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant capacity further in 2026, supported by record-high cobalt prices and strong production economics, a move that could deepen nickel oversupply and weigh on prices. Current output Indonesia's MHP output is projected to reach 482,000t in nickel metal equivalent this year — almost a 50pc rise from 2024, according to Argus estimates. Argus -assessed 37pc nickel payable MHP prices have fallen by 2.6pc on the year to $127.40/metric tonne unit (mtu) so far in 2025, while Class 1 nickel prices have dipped from $17,000/t to around $15,350/t over the same period. Nickel prices will likely remain depressed in the low-$15,000s/t range in 2026 because supply expansion is outpacing demand growth. Demand has slowed as the electric vehicle (EV) market growth has cooled in recent years, with annual growth in global EV car sales slowing from 26pc in 2024 to 23pc in 2025. Nickel demand growth could also face further headwinds from increasing competition from other battery types such as nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate and high-manganese chemistries. This could increase the nickel surplus, further weighing down on overall nickel prices. Indonesia has consolidated its position as the leading global MHP supplier after most Western plants halted operations in late 2023. The country currently hosts around 10 operating MHP projects with a combined designed capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Most projects are owned by Chinese giants Ningbo Lygend, Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), and Huayou, in collaboration with local producers Merdeka, Harita Nickel, and PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI). MHP capacity expansion More MHP projects are expected in the near-term, bolstered by elevated cobalt prices, as MHP typically contains 2-5pc of cobalt. Refineries have been seeking cobalt alternatives because of constrained supply following export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since February. Indonesia's cobalt feedstock capacity is projected to hit around 65,000 t/yr in 2026, while global cobalt supply is expected to hit 210,000t over the same period, according to Argus data. The lucrativeness of MHP in comparison with other nickel products, such as nickel pig iron (NPI), is another driver for investment. MHP production cost: $10,500–11,000/t (December estimate) Processing cost to convert MHP into nickel metal: $3,000–3,500/t Total cost for MHP to nickel metal: $13,500–14,500/t NPI to nickel metal cost: $14,000–14,500/t Additionally, cobalt by-product sales (around $2,000/t) help offset MHP production costs, effectively reducing net costs to $11,500–12,500/t, making MHP more lucrative than NPI. Outlook Concerns are mounting that rapid expansion of Indonesia's MHP capacity will further pressure on nickel prices. Argus forecasts Indonesia's MHP capacity to nearly double on the year to 862,000 t/yr in 2026, as several HPAL projects are scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. While not all capacity will translate into production, any additional output will add to an already oversupplied market, intensifying the glut. The overall nickel surplus is estimated at 212,000t in 2025 and is projected to reach 288,000t in 2026, according to Argus data. Indonesia has tightened its efforts to regulate nickel pricing and oversupply this year, reverting the validity period for RKAB mining quotas to one year. The government also suspended some nickel mines due to a lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, while lands were seized from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. These policy changes have yet to significantly impact nickel prices, but remain critical factors that could disrupt supply and influence the price outlook. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
W Australia's gas surplus outlook strengthens: Aemo
W Australia's gas surplus outlook strengthens: Aemo
Sydney, 19 December (Argus) — The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) is forecasting a bigger gas supply surplus in Western Australia (WA) for most of 2026-30, according to its 2025 WA Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO) report released today. Aemo now projects that both gas supply and demand will be lower than previously expected in the period, because of cutbacks at major industrial users and downward revisions to its production forecasts. But its demand revisions were larger than its supply revisions, increasing its projected surplus. The state's gas supply will exceed demand over most of that period, except in 2028 and 2030 (see table) . It has increased its projections for the size of the surplus compared with those in its 2024 WA GSOO report. Supply side Aemo cut its WA gas supply forecast because of delays, gas reserve depletions, and decreased expected production at the Gorgon, Scarborough, and Pluto projects, it said. The market operator previously expected Australia producer Strike Energy to open its 87 TJ/d (2.3mn m³/d) West Erregulla project in 2026. But Strike only aims to make a final investment decision on the project in July-December 2026 , later than originally anticipated . Strike's West Erregulla delay lowered WA's expected gas production by 52 TJ/d in 2027 and 63 TJ/d in 2028, Aemo said. Aemo has also cut its production expectations for the Scarborough and Pluto gas fields by up to 24 TJ/d in 2030, it said. Australian developer Woodside Energy aims to process 7mn t/yr of Scarborough gas and 3mn t/yr of Pluto gas from early 2027, it said in November. Workers building a 5mn t/yr LNG train at the Pluto LNG terminal plan to launch a strike on 6 January. Their current enterprise bargaining agreement with Australian engineering firm Bechtel will expire on 19 December, Argus understands. Planned maintenance and lower utilisation at the Gorgon project contributed to a 16 TJ/d cut to Aemo's forecasts, it said. The project's owners — which include Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Osaka Gas, Tokyo Gas and Jera — will modify its three-train Gordon LNG terminal as part of a A$3bn ($1.98bn) project, it said in December. Reserve downgrades and depletions at the Walyering, Beharra Springs, Macedon, and Varanus Island fields mostly account for the rest of the supply revisions, Aemo said. The Walyering and Beharra Springs field reserve downgrades cut Aemo's WA supply forecast by 5 TJ/d in 2026 and 23 TJ/d in 2029, it added. Demand side The closure of nickel mining and alumina refining operations cut Aemo's 2026-30 demand forecast, the operator said. But demand will still rise over that period, from 1,085 TJ/d in 2026 to 1,295 TJ/d, because of new mining and processing activity, it said. US producer Alcoa opted to permanently close its 2.2mn t/yr Kwinana alumina refinery on 30 September , after it paused the site in July 2024. It has not announced a full closure timeline yet, Alcoa Australia president Elsabe Muller told Argus at the time. Australian miner IGO has also paused its Forrestania and Cosmos nickel projects over recent years. Multiple developers including Australian producers Iluka Resources , Cobalt Blue , and RZ Resources will develop critical mineral mining or processing projects in WA over the coming years. By Avinash Govind WA projected gas surplus TJ/d Year Surplus (2024 WA GSOO) Surplus (2025 WA GSOO) 2026 4 54 2027 5 20 2028 -12 -89 2029 5 132 2030 -2 -11 *GSOO refers to Gas Statement of Opportunities Source: Australian Energy Market Operator Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank
Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank
Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Vietnamese pellet supply to remain volatile
Viewpoint: Vietnamese pellet supply to remain volatile
Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — The Vietnamese wood pellet market is likely to face supply volatility in early 2026 due to an adverse weather outlook in the coming months. This could be exacerbated by a busy period to clear shipments before the annual Tet holidays in February, while forecasts of rain in early 2026 could translate to a repetition of the supply shortages seen in 2025. Rain across the country can make it difficult to harvest raw material including wood chips, putting pressure on wood pellet production. La Nina weather conditions are expected to persist until February 2026 at a probability of 50-60pc, according to forecasts by the country's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF). Areas in southern Vietnam are expected to have higher-than-average rainfall at 10-30mm from January-February 2026. Regions in northern and central Vietnam may receive significant rainfall at 15-35mm during the same period. The NCHMF expects the most rainfall in the Quang Tri region in central Vietnam, with forecasts of 50-150mm in January and 40-70mm of rain in February. Multiple typhoons hit the country in the second half of 2025. Rain and floods were also frequent during this period, damaging wood pellet stockpiles and causing delays to shipments. Significant volumes of wood pellets were damaged by floods in late November. This was akin to weather-related disruptions seen in 2024, which extended to the Tet holidays in 2025. The supply disruptions caused a significant backlog of shipments after the holidays. Vietnamese wood pellet production capacity is also set to increase in 2026, cushioning the impact of the shortage brought about by supply disruptions in the fourth quarter of 2025. More than 300,000 t/yr of additional wood pellets are expected to meet export demand by the end of 2026. A major wood pellet supplier plans to generate an additional 315,000 t/yr of capacity by the end of 2026. A Japanese energy company aims to build at least five new wood pellet factories in the coming years, of which one with a capacity of 150,000 t/yr capacity began operations in 2025. Wood pellet from alternative origins Wood pellets from origins such as Russia and Canada have historically been the main alternatives to Vietnamese pellets and are generally considered to be of better quality. South Korean annual imports from Canada and Russia in 2025 are projected to rise on the year, much like Canadian wood pellets to Japan. Japan stopped importing from Russia in 2022. South Korean and Japanese demand for wood pellets from other southeast Asian origins have also increased substantially in recent months, with new volumes coming from Indonesia and Malaysia. Imports from the two countries have risen in 2025, with Indonesia having seen the highest export growth this year among all regions. This trend is expected to continue into 2026 where South Korean state-owned utilities and independent power producers (IPPs) have awarded more tender volumes to non-Vietnamese sellers, while Japan is expecting more than 200MW of new generation capacity to come on line by the end of 2026. By Nadhir Mokhtar and Joshua Sim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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