Analysis: New England expects summer load growth

The operator of New England's power grid expects summer 2015 electricity demand under normal weather conditions to peak at a level 9pc higher than last summer while installed capacity translates into a 13.5pc reserve margin.

Electricity demand in the region could peak at 26,710MW in summer under normal conditions and at 29,060MW under a scenario involving an extended heat wave, the Independent System Operator said. The peak load forecast incorporates 1,685MW of energy efficiency resources acquired through the 2015-16 forward capacity auction.

Load last year peaked at 24,443MW, on 2 July 2014. Regional demand peaked at 28,130MW in August 2006.

A combination of energy efficiency measures and declining industrial and commercial demand has cut load growth in the past decade. The estimated annual electricity consumption growth rate is 0.1pc in the next decade while summer peak load will increase by 0.7pc, according to the grid operator's long-term outlook released last November.

The grid operator estimates summertime generating capacity in the region at 30,325MW. Another 1,240MW is available in firm imports. Demand response resources amount to 640MW.

The region in the past year lost the 605MW Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant and the 585MW Salem Harbor coal plant. Only 120MW of new capacity has been added, from a wind farm and a wood-burning facility. Installed capacity will drop by almost 2GW in 2016-17. The grid also has to tackle the challenge of balancing utility scale renewable generation, as well as behind-the-meter solar generation, which stands at 900MW.

The power grid still has sufficient resources to meet consumers' needs for power this summer, grid operator chief operating officer Vamsi Chadalavada said.

Peak New England power assessments are $48/MWh for the summer block, a 17pc premium to the year-earlier prescheduled average.

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