UK diesel and petrol vehicle ban to lift power demand

The UK government's plan to end the sale of new petrol or diesel vehicles by 2040 is likely to accelerate uptake of electric vehicles and could significantly lift power demand by 2050.

The government confirmed today that it plans to bring forward proposals for allowing only electric or ultra-low emissions vehicles to be sold from 2040, and for nearly every vehicle to be emissions-free by 2050, as part of its clean air strategy.

The targets fall broadly in line with the characteristics of the most ambitious environmentally friendly energy market scenario set out by transmission system operator (TSO) National Grid earlier this month.

The TSO forecast that if such targets were met, around 65pc of all UK cars will be electric by 2040, before rising to 100pc by 2050, assuming roughly 25mn cars are on the road.

Such a scenario would result in annual power demand from electric cars rising to around 27.5TWh by 2040, and to 35TWh by 2050.

Peak daily demand from the electric vehicle sector could approach 18GW by 2050 in an extreme scenario, raising overall peak system demand above the 85GW mark, especially if the transition coincides with the electrification of the UK's heat sector.

And the rise in demand could pose supply challenges for the system beyond 2030 if left unmanaged, National Grid said.

But if demand is managed, and most electric vehicles are charged during off-peak hours, the increase in peak demand from current levels could be just 6GW by 2050, the TSO said.

"The potential impact that unmanaged mass electric vehicle charging, particularly at peak time, could create is significant. In such a scenario, challenges to operating the system, generation and network capability will need to be addressed if we are to have a network that is safe, secure, reliable and economical," National Grid said.

Energy market regulator Ofgem said this week that it would review regulatory, network and tariff regimes for electric vehicles to allow the benefits of the technology to be optimised. Electric vehicles could potentially offer power demand-side or storage services to the grid, Ofgem said.

UK electric vehicle registrations have risen sharply in recent years. Around 36,900 were registered during 2016, up from 28,190 in 2015 and just 14,500 in 2014. And the country had a total of just under 90,000 registered electric vehicles on the road by the end of 2016.

The UK timeframe for the phase out of petrol and diesel vehicles mirrors a similar plan set out by the French government earlier this month.