Colombia tacks right ahead of presidential election

Colombian voters are shifting to the right ahead of 27 May presidential elections, according to polling, raising expectations for lower taxes and tighter security in the strategic oil and coal mining industries that have languished under incumbent left-of-center president Juan Manuel Santos.

Former senator Ivan Duque of the conservative Centro Democratico party is the consistent frontrunner in voter polls. Duque's patron is influential former president Alvaro Uribe, who cracked down on guerrilla attacks during his back-to-back terms from 2002-10 and led opposition to the government's 2016 peace deal with former guerrilla group Farc.

Among Duque´s proposals are a simpler tax code, differentiated tax rates based on company size, and 10 years of tax incentives for job-creating investments. He vows to promote agroindustry among small farmers, protect property rights, tackle corruption and complete long-delayed infrastructure projects.

Duque promises to toughen the terms of the Farc deal, and raise the bar on a future agreement with guerrilla group ELN, which is currently negotiating a new ceasefire with the Santos government.

Duque´s leading rival is former guerrilla and Bogota mayor Gustavo Petro, whose Colombia Humana movement seeks to diversify the economy away from oil and mining toward renewable energy and agriculture. Petro scares the business community with proposals to take over and redistribute fallow land.

Duque´s critics across the political spectrum say he has scant experience, and would answer to Uribe behind the scenes, accusations the candidate repeatedly dismisses. For his part, Petro denies suggestions that he would march Colombia down the ruinous path of neighboring Venezuela.

In the business community, Santos' former vice president German Vargas Lleras is seen by some as a more seasoned, investor-friendly choice over Duque. Recent polls suggest Vargas is unlikely to reach the 17 June run-off election, but his political machinery could still catapult him into the running.

On the center-left, moderate academic and former Medellin mayor Sergio Fajardo is polling further behind, while former chief peace negotiator Humberto de la Calle is no longer considered a viable candidate.

The winner, who will take over from Santos in August, will inherit a boom in revenue from higher oil prices. But oil production, led by state-controlled Ecopetrol, is stagnant, and a promised offshore gas bonanza has not materialized. Coal production is down, and both the mining and oil industries are dogged by security threats and local protests that often turn violent.

A persistent campaign issue is Venezuela, from where up to a million migrants have fled into Colombia, and many more are predicted to follow. A Duque administration would take a more confrontational approach toward the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro, which is long known to harbor Colombian guerrillas and drug traffickers. A Petro administration would likely strike a more conciliatory tone.