Barriers to EVs reducing rapidly: IEA

Barriers to the rolling out and adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) are rapidly being reduced and will see their global uptake increase significantly, according to the IEA.

While the purchase cost of EVs, limited driving range and limited infrastructure are regarded as major barriers, their impact is quickly reducing, said the operating agent for the IEA's Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology Collaboration Programme Bert Witkamp at a battery minerals conference in Perth, Western Australia.

"Price parity between EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles will be reached within five years, driving ranges are being improved to upwards of 600km and a network is being rolled out in Europe which will be able to charge an EV for a range of 100km within three minutes," Witkamp said. "Even three years ago, no one thought EVs would be significant, now many countries see this as the only way forward for transportation. In China, where 1.2mn EVs were sold in 2018, EVs are part of national industrial policy."

A task force has been formed to evaluate the impact of the transition to electric drive technology on raw materials in the short term and the longer term, Witkamp said. Critical raw materials for EVs include lithium, graphite, cobalt, manganese, nickel, rare earths and vanadium.

The task force, which is represented by 18 countries and has been joined by Japan's state-owned energy agency Jogmec, aims to provide transparent and up to date information on raw materials and battery technologies. This includes lead times to the development of raw material capacity, recycling and responsible sourcing.

"How much do we need and when is one of the questions we want to answer," Witkamp said, adding that lithium-ion batteries alone could consume 5mn t/yr of nickel by 2050 with lithium and cobalt consumption being 10-20 times higher than today.

"Volkswagen has said it will stop developing internal combustion engines in 2026 and other automakers are following suit. There will come a time when consumers won't want to buy old technology. They will either buy or share new EVs. When the tipping point comes, the change will come fast," he said.

Original equipment manufacturers face the question of what future battery technology will be, along with the challenges of autonomous driving vehicles, shared driving trends and continuing emissions legislation.

By 2035 Witkamp said EVs will have a 50pc share of global vehicle sales, while electrification is also expected to make inroads into aviation and shipping.

Global EV sales have averaged 50 pc/yr growth since 2008, Witkamp said, while Tesla has become the number one luxury vehicle brand in the US and EVs accounted for 60pc of vehicle sales in Norway last year.