EV lithium battery costs forecast to fall sharply

Lithium-ion batteries are expected to fall to 10pc of the overall price of an electric vehicle (EV) from current level of 50pc, according to Australian forecasts.

"Electric vehicle battery costs have already fallen by about 80pc and this trend will continue until the upfront cost of EVs becomes lower than that of internal combustion engine vehicles by around 2024," the chief executive of the Electric Vehicle Council of Australia Behyad Jafari said at a battery metals conference in Perth, Western Australia.

It took six years for sales to reach 1mn vehicles but then just six months to reach more than 2mn vehicles in 2018, he said, illustrating the recent rapid growth of the global EV market.

Global automakers are already behind the decision-making curve when it comes to rollout plans to meet growing EV demand. "We are currently in the incremental growth phase, but two tipping points regarding fleet owners buying electric vehicles and the attractiveness of upfront EV costs are on track to be reached between 2021 and 2024," Jafari said.

"EVs account for around 2pc of the world's passenger vehicle fleet, but by 2040 this is likely to be 60-65pc as increasing numbers of consumers and companies embrace the need for lower emissions and the improved performance and efficiency of EVs."

Jafari forecast lithium concentrate demand from battery producers to rise to around 850,000 t/yr by 2025 compared with the current 300,000 t/yr.