US UAN imports on pace to exceed 2018

UAN imports to the US ballooned during the first quarter as the global market adjusted to newly-imposed anti-dumping duties on key suppliers to the European Union (EU).

Imports during the first quarter exceeded the prior year by 50pc at 922,529t, driven by significantly more volume from Trinidad and Russia, according to US customs data.

Volumes from Trinidad to the US more than doubled during the three-month period to 287,916t. Imports from Russia climbed by 70pc to 485,121t, with more than 150,000t shipped to the US each month.

Higher US imports during the first quarter stemmed from restructuring global trade flow in the aftermath of the EU's imposition of preliminary anti-dumping duties on UAN imports from the US, Russia and Trinidad. The US is the largest UAN consuming market at about 12mn-12.5mn t/yr, according to Argus estimates, and nearly 20pc of this demand was met by imports in 2018. EU imports rose to nearly 2mn t in 2018, the bulk of which was supplied by the US, Russia and Trinidad.

US imports are climbing in 2019, after three consecutive years of declines, because there are few alternative markets that can absorb what was previously shipped to the EU. This trend is poised to continue through the first half of 2019 as delayed corn planting in the US has lengthened the nitrogen application period, which is expected to strengthen UAN demand through June.

US exports declined by 56pc to 119,873t during the first quarter, with shipments to France down by 55pc to 66,000t. US suppliers have increased volumes to Latin America, primarily Mexico, but not enough to balance what was previously shipped to France.

Lower exports of US UAN to France resulted in a 12pc decline in the country's first-quarter import volumes at 365,131t, which was softened by a 2pc rise in volumes from intra-EU trade at 154,241t, according to Eurostat. Imports sourced from the US, Russia and Trinidad fell by 21pc during the first three months of 2019 and accounted for 57pc of volumes during the period. Imports from the three countries a year earlier totaled 260,928t, or 63pc of total volumes.