Analysis: China maintains Australian coking coal demand

Chinese buyers have largely maintained their imports of Australian coking coal since December, despite delays to customs clearance and cargo discharge.

The imposition of extended waiting times for cargoes to undergo customs declaration at the end of last year sent China's imports from Australia to just 432,992t in December from 2.45mn t in the previous month.

Many market participants expected the measures, which appeared to target Australian imports specifically, to freeze deliveries from the country. But total volumes of Australian coking coal imports to China in fact increased slightly — to 8.17mn t between December and March, from 8.14mn t in the same period a year earlier — although month-on-month volatility has become much more pronounced.

Imports rose tenfold in January 2019 from the previous month to 4.33mn t, when controls on customs declarations were loosened and the huge backlog of cargoes held up in December was finally cleared. But coking coal imports then dropped to 1.16mn t in February, as Chinese customs authorities again began restricting Australian coal to prevent total import volumes from rising too fast.

The new restrictions included additional measures to control imports, such as allowing vessels to discharge for only a maximum of eight hours a day on working days. Imports then almost doubled to 2.23mn t in March, accoridng to the most recent customs data, in line with typical levels in previous years.

China resumed imports of US coking coal in March with deliveries of 60,585t that month, after not having taken US imports since November 2018. But the recent escalation in trade tensions between the US and China threatens to end the resumption of the trade, despite earlier optimism that signs of progress in the trade talks could lead to Chinese tariffs on US coal being relaxed.

China's imports of US coking coal fell by 76.5pc in September 2018 from a month earlier after China imposed 25pc import tariffs on US coal in August in retaliation for US tariffs on its goods. China took delivery of 218,457t of coking coal from the US in November, despite the tariffs, which possibly included some cargoes that had already been shipped to China before the tariffs were imposed.