France tries to mediate between US, Iran

Trump's initial beliefs that Iran would negotiate a deal have not been realised, with Tehran rejecting all his advances

French president Emmanuel Macron is stepping up efforts to prevent a further escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran. But US actions and Iran's response to them undercut potential mediation and continue to pose a threat to an unhindered flow of oil from the Middle East.

Macron will host Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on 23 August, just ahead of the G7 summit in Biarritz, France. Paris and Tehran are working on a mechanism to ensure that "Europe starts complying with obligations they undertook under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] and their commitments since the US withdrew from the JCPOA", Zarif says.

Iran says it can resume full compliance with restrictions on its nuclear programme if the JCPOA's European participants guarantee its ability to export oil despite US sanctions. An EU-backed alternative payment system has failed to address Tehran's concerns, so Macron is trying a different approach. Paris will work to soften the sanctions or provide a "compensation mechanism" to address Iran's humanitarian needs, Macron says. Tehran, in return, expresses willingness to discuss longer limits on its nuclear programme than those in the JCPOA.

Washington's participation is key to the success of the EU-Iran discussions. But it shows no signs of easing its sanctions policy. The US hopes its policy of maximum pressure and the ban on all crude exports from Iran, which came into effect in early May, will force Tehran to negotiate a new deal on US terms. Nominally, US officials do not rule out negotiations, even though the preconditions they have in place are viewed in Tehran as tantamount to regime change.

US president Donald Trump appears to concede that his advisers' calculations may not work. "They very much want to make a deal," he says. "They just do not know how to call because they are proud people, and I understand that." He encourages Iran to reach out, although previous mediation efforts have failed, in part because of Trump's preference for personal diplomacy similar to his engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Iran is "given mixed signals from all of those purporting to represent us", including from Macron, Trump says.

Iran's leaders have rejected all overtures from Trump. Tehran is not ruling out direct talks with the US, Zarif says, but only if Washington lifts sanctions imposed under Trump. Zarif was invited to meet Trump last month, but turned down the offer. US officials have since placed Zarif on the sanctions list, saying he is not a "significant decision-maker". The State Department's Iran envoy, Brian Hook, suggests that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could delegate a member of the country's supreme national security council on a diplomatic mission.

Trump, despite expressing a willingness to negotiate with Tehran, says the US sanctions effort is effective. "They are not selling oil. It is like a trickle," he says. Just how much oil Iran is selling is still an open question, even for the US administration. Iran exported 100,000 b/d in June-July, Hook says. The number is between zero and 500,000 b/d, according to US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Grace under pressure

A forfeiture complaint by the US Department of Justice, which unsuccessfully sought to keep the Iranian at Gibraltar, shows Tehran's continued ability to evade the sanctions regime through the use of shell companies, ship-to-ship transfers and financial intermediaries in the UAE, and even the US.

Washington has not given up on attempts to detain Grace 1, which has been renamed Adrian Darya 1 and left the port of Gibraltar on 18 August. "We are tracking the movement of that boat," Hook says. The US is calling on Mediterranean port authorities to deny docking privileges for Iranian tankers.