Brazil poised for record grain, oilseed crops

Brazil's 2019-20 harvest of grains and oilseeds is poised to set a record, surpassing 250mn metric tonnes (t), as corn and soybean yields climb on improved weather.

Total output is pegged at 251.1mn t, exceeding the 248mn t forecast in January and topping last season's record 242mn t harvest, Brazil's agricultural statistics agency Conab said today.

"What marks this forecast is the good climatic conditions that favor the recovery of crops, slaughtered the last cycle by the drought in key-producing states," Conab said.

Total planted area is expected to reach nearly 65mn hectares (161mn acres), up from 63.3mn hectares last season.

The current season had a slow beginning in September-October when a lack of rainfall hampered soybean sowing. The weather has improved since then, helping oilseeds to develop, and now benefiting the planting of the second-corn crop. The so-called safrinha is planted after soybeans are removed from the fields and is harvested by mid-year.

According to Conab, Brazil's soybean output will total 123.2mn t, versus 122.2mn t expected in January and up by 7.1pc year-on-year. The oilseed harvest, which is underway, was lower than expectations in 2018-19 due to severe drought in some states.

Regarding corn, Conab raised its forecast by 2pc and now expects a 100.5mn t output, slightly higher than 100mn t harvested in 2018-19, with safrinha accounting for 73.2mn t of the forecast volume. High domestic prices have been attractive for farmers, Conab said.

Both soybean and corn estimates would represent record harvests if realized.

Conab also raised its estimate for cotton lint production, pegging it at 2.8mn t, up by 2.5pc from January's forecast and 1.6pc higher than the prior season.

The forecast for corn exports this cycle was unchanged at 34mn t and the estimate for cotton lint exports was little changed at 2mn t. Soybean export estimates are under revision, Conab said.

Brazil is the world's largest exporter of soybeans and the second largest exporter of corn and cotton after the US.

By José Roberto Gomes