Rising Chinese hydropower weighs on coal consumption

An increase in hydropower output in south China, from heavy rainfall as well as enhanced delivery of hydropower across provinces following the recent completion of new UHV transmission lines, is weighing on the country's coal consumption.

Average daily combined coal burn at the six flagship coastal utilities in China stood at 599,100 t/d in the week that ended on 1 June, down by 63,400 t/d from an average of 662,500 t/d a week earlier, despite the approaching peak summer consumption season.

China's southern island province of Hainan is planning to buy 1.5TWh of hydropower from the southwestern Yunnan province this month, an increase of 50pc compared with the same month last year. Hydropower will be delivered via sea transmission cables to the island.

Sichuan, another southwestern province, is increasing its delivery of hydropower to other southern provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, now that maintenance work on several of its UHV transmission stations has been completed.

The increase in hydropower generation comes as China's main economic planning agency the NDRC has announced clean energy targets for 2020 with penalties for grid operators and utilities if they fail to meet expectations. The country is aiming for 28.2pc of electricity to come from renewable sources, this year with hydropower accounting for the bulk of it. China produced 11.534TWh of hydropower in 2019. It produced 2.72TWh during January-April, a decline of 9.4pc from a year earlier period, according to data from coal industry association the CCTD. The year-on-year decline in January-April occurred from lower rainfall earlier this year.

The targets could push more Chinese utilities to turn to hydropower instead of coal to meet rising power consumption, especially as domestic coal prices have been rising amid tighter restrictions against cheaper imported coal.

Bids for Chinese domestic NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal were around 540-545 yuan/t ($75.83-$76.53/t) fob north China ports yesterday against offers at around Yn550-555/t. This was up slightly from Argus' last assessment of Yn543.67/t ($75.87/t) fob Qinhuangdao on 29 May.

By Kelvin Leong