IAEA steps up pressure on Iran: Update

Adds EU3 foreign ministers' statement in paragraphs 5-7

The UN's nuclear watchdog has stepped up pressure on Iran over inspection access, with its first formal call for Tehran to co-operate for nearly eight years.

The IAEA has adopted a resolution after months of more informal public requests by its director-general, Rafael Grossi, for inspectors to be permitted access to locations and for clarification on possible undeclared nuclear material and nuclear-related activities in Iran. This is the first such formal resolution on Iran that the IAEA has adopted since September 2012.

Unfettered IAEA access to Iran's nuclear facilities was a key part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal, under which Iran was freed of US and EU sanctions and allowed to export its crude unhindered. But this deal has been unravelling since the US pulled out of the deal and reimposed sanctions in 2018.

Tehran said in January this year that it would take a "fifth and final" step to reduce compliance with the deal by removing restrictions placed on the number of centrifuges installed at its two uranium enrichment sites in Natanz and Fordow. Shortly after that move the JCPOA's three European signatories — France, Germany and the UK — triggered the deal's dispute mechanism, although nothing tangible came from it.

Significantly, the resolution adopted by the IAEA today was put forward by the three European governments. Their foreign ministers met today in Berlin where they again affirmed their commitment to the JCPOA.

"We must address shared concerns about Iran's nuclear programme, its ballistic missile programme and its destabilising regional activities in the long term. To this end, we continue to believe that the strategy of maximum pressure will not effectively serve this goal," they said, referring to a phrase that the US government has used to describe its strategy on Iran.

The three said that they will seek a ministerial-level meeting with the Iranian government "to take stock", and said that any unilateral attempt to trigger fresh UN sanctions on Iran would be incompatible with their efforts to preserve the JCPOA.

But that agreement's future appears broadly dependent on the outcome of the US presidential election in November.

Incumbent President Donald Trump has repeatedly called the deal the "worst ever". His challenger, Joe Biden, has said that if he wins the presidency, the US will resume its commitments under the JCPOA — including oil sanctions relief — so long as Iran resumes compliance with the deal. But that assumes a willing partner in Tehran, where enthusiasm for an agreement with the US has waned after Trump's unilateral moves.

The Iranian government last month dismissed as tantamount to regime change a 12-point US ultimatum demanding major domestic and foreign policy changes in Tehran as a precondition for future talks on sanctions relief.

US sanctions have cut Iran's crude exports by 2mn b/d, but have fallen short of Washington's professed objective of bringing that to zero.

By Ben Winkley