Driving activity in Asia has fallen back slightly in August, ending three consecutive months of increases, as Covid-19 cases re-emerge in countries that had previously reported some success in containing the virus.
Driving activity across 16 Asian countries in the first half of August averaged 10.5pc below a 13 January baseline, compared to an average of 9.3pc below the same baseline in July, according to mobility data from Apple that gives an indication of driving activity by tracking direction requests.
Traders use driving activity as a proxy for gasoline demand. The Singapore 92R gasoline refining margin — the difference between the gasoline price and Ice Brent crude — has also weakened. The margin was assessed at an average premium of $1.19/bl in the first half of August, down from a $1.53/bl premium in July.
Regional driving activity had increased for three straight months, as Asian economies recovered from initial Covid-19 outbreaks in the first quarter. But Australia, New Zealand and Vietnam — all countries that had successfully managed the coronavirus — have recorded strong month-on-month declines this month because of new outbreaks.
Australia's driving activity was 10.4pc below the January baseline in the first half of August, compared to 2.9pc below the baseline in July. Australia reintroduced stay-at-home restrictions in some states for six weeks from 8 July because of a second wave of Covid-19 cases.
New Zealand's driving activity recovered to 5.5pc above the January baseline in July but then fell back sharply to 17.7pc below the baseline in the first half of August. New Zealand has reported new coronavirus cases in recent weeks after previously declaring itself free of the virus.
And a resurgence of the coronavirus in Vietnam's tourist area of Danang at the end of July, together with resulting curbs on movement, helped send Vietnam's driving activity 33.2pc below the January baseline in the first half of August, compared to 16.5pc above the baseline in July.
But there is at least one bright spot for gasoline demand in the region. Driving activity in Indonesia, Asia-Pacific's largest gasoline buyer, rose above the January baseline in the first half of August for the first time in six months.
The Asian data cover Australia, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
