Spanish 2020 renewable additions could exceed forecasts

Renewable power capacity additions in mainland Spain could far exceed forecasts from Spanish renewable energy industry associations, according to Argus' monitoring of proposed projects.

Wind power association AEE expects between 800MW and 1.5GW of new wind power capacity to be added in Spain this year, while solar photovoltaic (PV) association Unef forecasts that around 1.5GW could be connected to the grid, for a maximum combined total of 3GW. These figures include capacity that has already started up this year — nearly 1.63GW of renewable capacity was brought on line between January and July, higher than 1.31GW in the same period of 2019, according to data from grid operator REE. The firm told Argus it does not have estimates of renewable capacity additions for this year.

The AEE and Unef forecasts represent significant decreases from the record additions seen last year, when 4.2GW of solar PV and almost 2.3GW of wind capacity came on line in peninsular Spain, according to the latest REE data. Most of the new capacity last year was part of the 8GW allocated in two auctions in 2017, as winners had a deadline of 31 December 2019 to bring units on line.

But data compiled by Argus from publicly announced renewable projects suggest that total additions in 2020 could easily surpass 3GW. A further 4.2GW of renewable capacity could potentially come on line by the end of this year, of which at least 3.2GW is under construction.

Solar PV accounts for the highest share with 2.8GW, of which at least 1.94GW is under construction. Wind projects total 1.38GW, with at least 1.25GW officially under construction.

Major projects

Some of the biggest projects under way include Spanish integrated energy company Repsol's 335MW Delta wind complex in the northeastern province of Aragon and the 264MW Valdesolar PV project in the central-western Extremadura region.

Construction of the Delta project started in December, with the plant expected to come on line at the end of 2020. And while Valdesolar is only expected to be fully on line in early 2021, some of its 648,000 solar modules are anticipated to be connected to the grid by the end of 2020, Repsol said last month.

Another major project is the 300MW Talasol solar PV plant that Israel-based company Ellomay Capital has been building in Extremadura. The plant is still expected to come on line by the end of this year despite a cumulative delay of approximately 30 days in the completion of works because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The 300MW Talayuela Solar plant in Extremadura is expected to connect to the grid in October. German renewable energy producer Encavis, which controls a majority stake in the project, has a 10-year power purchase agreement (PPA) to sell power from the facility.

Encavis also expects to bring its 200MW Cabrera Solar project in Spain's southern region of Andalucia on line by the end of this year. The plant has a 10-year PPA with global retailer Amazon.

More capacity will come from Danish fund manager Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP)'s 487MW Monegros onshore wind complex in Aragon. Some of the 12 wind farms are already operational, with most of them still expected to come on line over the second half of 2020 and early in 2021, CIP said last month.

Spanish utilities Endesa and Iberdola are adding significant volumes of new renewable capacity within the next few months, although it is not clear how much will come on line before the end of this year.

Endesa has around 320MW of solar PV and wind power projects under construction in Spain, of which 300MW is on the mainland and some 22MW in the Balearic islands. All mainland projects were originally expected to come on line before the end of this year, but chief executive Jose Bogas said recently that some of them could face "minor delays" owing to the effects of Covid-19, and may come on line by January or February instead of December.

Iberdrola has connected 634MW of new capacity this year, including the 500MW Nunez de Balboa solar PV plant in Extremadura and the 111MW Cavar wind complex in the northern region of Navarra.

The company has at least 800MW of capacity originally planned to come on line by the end of 2020, of which more than 200MW is officially under construction. Iberdrola did not reply to a request to update on the status and estimated commissioning date for each project.

By Juan Weik