Opinion: The vote and the virus

Covid-19 has added yet more uncertainty to an already divisive US election, the outcome of which will affect the future of the global energy sector

US president Donald Trump's revelation that he has tested positive for Covid-19 has upended what was already shaping up to be the most chaotic and divisive election since Abraham Lincoln's win in 1860. Democratic rival Joe Biden, who faced Trump in a rancorous debate on 29 September, has tested negative for the virus so far, as the president's months-long effort to downplay the pandemic comes home to shake Washington.

In the run-up to the 3 November vote, our US Election 2020 feature series will provide an in-depth look at what the election means for the US and global energy sectors, and how it will affect Washington's relations with key energy producers and consumers. What the rest of the campaign may look like is now even more unclear. But whatever the outcome, the world can anticipate big changes.

Trump has felt shackled by institutional checks and balances for most of his first term. Another four years would enable him to fully implement his agenda. His "America First" approach extends from energy — projecting economic power in the "phase one" deal with China — to trade — where national security is invoked to justify tariffs against allies and adversaries — and the Middle East — a region that he wants to withdraw the US from while pinning Iran down with sanctions.

Biden hopes to recast the US as a leader of multilateral alliances, guiding the world in containing Covid-19, tackling climate change through the Paris accord and using diplomacy rather than sanctions to advance strategic goals. A Biden presidency, with a prospective ban on drilling on federal property and a slew of climate regulations, would create headaches for US oil executives. US producers have enjoyed a friendly reception in Trump's White House.

But either presidency presents a mixed bag for the industry. Trump's regulatory rollback may have saved the US industry cents on the barrel, but it has prompted a backlash against pipeline construction. And Biden could serve as a bulwark against a more radical anti-fossil fuel agenda. Trump's trade wars would likely continue to frustrate US oil and LNG exporters, especially if he accelerates economic decoupling from China, limiting growth prospects for the global economy and commodity demand. US oil producers this year had to re-learn the lesson that Opec+ decisions matter more to their bottom lines than those made in Washington. And a majority of US oil executives said in a recent survey that US oil output has peaked, regardless of the election outcome.

Standing back and standing by

Some foreign powers may be positioning themselves for a Biden win. Chinese president Xi Jinping's promise to achieve "carbon neutrality" by 2060 could become a platform for climate-led talks with Biden. Tehran is remotely negotiating terms for sanctions relief if Biden returns the US to the Iran nuclear deal. But Saudi Arabia and Russia are predictably more wary of a change at the White House.

Of course, the election result remains unpredictable, and may not be known for weeks or months after polling day. A third outcome — competing claims to the presidency and a disputed transition — is a distinct possibility. Our series does not seek to predict the result, but to provide an outline of what to expect from whoever occupies the White House on 20 January.