Mideast Gulf states wary of US reset

A Biden administration could see the US revert to engagement with Iran, at the expense of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, write Samira Kawar and Haik Gugarats

Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be far more comfortable if US president Donald Trump wins next month's election, fearful that the Middle East policies of a Joe Biden administration would look like a continuation of Barack Obama's.

The Obama administration's prioritisation of the Iran nuclear deal — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — indirectly increased regional tensions as an alarmed Saudi Arabia assumed a more interventionist role to counter what it perceived to be growing Iranian influence. Trump's subsequent withdrawal from the JCPOA and reimposition and toughening up of sanctions against Iran came as a huge relief to Riyadh. If Biden becomes president, he will prioritise resurrecting the Iran nuclear deal, leading to a likely mitigation of US sanctions against Iran and paving the way for political de-escalation between Washington and Tehran.

A Biden administration would have limited room for other major foreign policy initiatives in the Middle East, given the US' focus on post-Covid-19 economic revival. But de-escalation with Iran could promote moves towards resolution of other conflicts regionally, including in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The UAE has managed to extricate its troops from Yemen, and is exercising its influence through proxy forces in the south of the country. Saudi Arabia is likely to welcome an opportunity to end its involvement in what has become an expensive quagmire, but Riyadh needs something to show for a military campaign that has lasted for more than five years. The Iran-aligned Houthi movement, which controls much of northern Yemen, remains capable of firing missiles at Saudi Arabia.

A successful de-escalation with Iran may improve the prospects of resolving the Yemen conflict, by encouraging Tehran to influence its Houthi allies to offer conditions acceptable to Riyadh. The latter remains opposed to the UAE-backed demand for a separate state in southern Yemen, but some analysts think that a federalist model could work in Yemen if Saudi Arabia would agree to a Houthi-dominated north. Failing a resolution of the Yemeni situation, the US under Biden would be prepared to help Riyadh protect its territories from Houthi missiles and to continue operations to prevent Iranian weapons from flowing to the Houthis.

Value judgment

Riyadh — the recipient of Trump's first state visit as president — could expect a colder reception under Biden. The US would "reassess our relationship with the Kingdom, end US support for Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen, and make sure America does not check its values at the door to sell arms or buy oil", Biden says. And his stated intention of promoting democracy and not overlooking human rights will be a reminder to some Gulf Co-operation Council governments — particularly in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain — of what they viewed as the Obama administration's encouragement of the destabilising Arab Spring.

A Biden administration would not abandon the US alliance with Riyadh but would plan to push it to show greater progress on human rights, including accountability for the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Pressuring Riyadh to show progress on political reform is seen as necessary to bolster the credibility of social and economic reforms under its Vision 2030 programme.

A US-Iran de-escalation under Biden would also be likely to end military tensions between them in Iraq, where Biden would want to preserve a modest US military force solely to combat remnants of Islamist group Isis. Saudi Arabia and Iraq are seeking to deepen their economic ties, and an easing of US-Iranian tensions could support this. But a resolution of the dispute between Saudi Arabia-UAE and Qatar may not be a priority for a Biden administration, as Washington's strong relations with all three remain unhampered by the row.