Russia mulls position on Opec+

Russia's energy ministry summoned domestic oil firms to a virtual meeting earlier today to discuss the Opec+ agreement and Russian crude production, according to a source familiar with the agenda.

Russian deputy minister Pavel Sorokin refused to be drawn on the outcome of the meeting or Russia's stance on output policy when he was asked about it. "There are many countries [in Opec+] and it would not be right to run in front of the train," Sorokin said.

Pressure is mounting on the Opec+ coalition to consider dropping its plan to raise production next year in light of renewed pressure on oil demand from fresh Covid-19 restrictions. Russian president Vladimir Putin said last month that Russia sees no need to change course at the moment but he acknowledged the possibility that the Opec+ group might decide to maintain or even deepen existing output curbs, rather than stick with the original plan to raise quotas in January.

Opec and its non-Opec partners are scheduled to ease crude production cuts by almost 2mn b/d at the start of next year in the third and final stage of their current agreement. But renewed pressure on oil demand from second and potentially third waves of Covid-19 and a recovery in crude output from Libya, which is exempt from the agreement, have raised doubts about the oil market's ability to absorb the extra supply.

Russia has exceeded its crude production ceiling by 50,000-100,000 b/d every month since the current Opec+ deal began in May. Moscow's quota was 8.492mn b/d in May-July and is set at 8.993mn b/d in August-December. Under the current terms of the deal, Russia will be able to increase crude output to 9.495mn b/d on 1 January. Moscow has the same quotas as Opec's de facto leader Saudi Arabia.

By Anastasia Krasinskaya