Iata sees long wait for recovery in passenger demand

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) expects global air passenger demand to improve in 2021 compared with this year. But numbers will not return to 2019 levels until 2024 at the earliest, the organisation said today in its latest forecast.

Iata expects 2.8bn passengers to travel next year, 1bn more than in 2020 but 1.7bn fewer than in 2019. Demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) is forecast to be 50pc higher in 2021 compared with this year but 50pc lower than last year. Capacity in 2021 is projected to be up by 35.5pc from this year but 43pc lower than last year.

North American and Asian aviation markets are expected to lead next year's partial recovery, both in passenger demand and capacity, thanks to their large domestic markets and significant cargo operations. The European market is more dependent on international travel routes.

"While the industry will see improved performance in 2021 compared to 2020, the road to recovery is expected to be long and difficult," Iata said. "Passenger volumes are not expected to return to 2019 levels until 2024 at the earliest, with domestic markets recovering faster than international services."

By Florence Schmit