Some Opec+ members to meet tomorrow: Update

Adds time of meeting in paragraph 2, details and context throughout

Some members of the Opec+ coalition will meet for informal talks tomorrow ahead of next week's ministerial meetings.

Saudi Arabia and Russia have called together members of the group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) for discussions at 13:00 GMT tomorrow, according to a letter seen by Argus from Opec's secretary general Mohammad Barkindo to heads of delegation.

The JMMC last met only 10 days ago, but that gathering concluded with no immediate policy recommendation about how the group should proceed with its crude output cuts. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said after that meeting that the oil market was too fluid for any decisions to be made.

Subsequent events have backed this up — the front-month Ice Brent crude price has risen by as much as 10pc since the 17 November JMMC, thanks to a series of positive news updates about progress on Covid-19 vaccines. But the demand outlook remains subdued by the effects of the pandemic, with the IEA projecting this month that demand is unlikely to get a significant boost from vaccines until the latter parts of next year. The Opec+ group's task has been made more difficult by a swift return of crude production in Libya, which remains outside the quota system.

Opec ministers are scheduled to meet formally on 30 November, and a full Opec+ meeting follows on 1 December. They will decide whether to stick to the original plan to raise combined crude production by almost 2mn b/d from January or whether they should extend the current level of output cuts into next year.

Sources say that Opec+ is leaning towards a decision to delay the increase in output, most likely by three months.

By Rowena Edwards, Ruxandra Iordache and Ben Winkley