Viewpoint: US truck volumes could rise with vaccine use

The use of new Covid-19 vaccines in the US could result in a loosening of pandemic-related lockdowns in 2021, potentially boosting trucking volumes after containment measures caused a sizable decline in volumes this year.

Truck volumes in 2020 fell by the largest monthly margin in April, as travel restrictions brought on by the pandemic begin to take hold nationwide. The American Trucking Association's (ATA) for-hire truck tonnage index fell to 104.9 in April, 11.3pc less than the same value during April of 2019, marking the largest year-over-year decline since the Great Recession of 2008-09. Month-over-month, the index was down by 12.2pc in April, the largest decline in 26 years, according to the ATA. ATA's index is based on member surveys on tonnage hauled by fleets, with 100 points awarded for every 2,015t hauled.

Since the low mark in April, the index has fluctuated through October, the most recent month of data available. But throughout that time period monthly volumes have mostly remained below a year prior. October's index was calculated at 106.8, down by 8.7pc from October of 2019.

Truck tonnage has improved with a rise in the retail sector over the last several months, as consumers and workers purchased necessities on line and had them shipped. But labor shortages have capped more robust growth in trucking volumes. An American Transportation Research Institute report in October concluded the driver shortage was the top issue facing the industry for the third year in a row.

Covid-19 vaccines were administered to some frontline medical workers starting in mid-December. Distribution of the vaccine is expected to continue for the better part of 2021, which may provide a small boost to trucking volumes in the foreseeable future as more cases of the vaccine are transported via truck by global shippers such as FedEx and UPS to medical facilities across the country.

Higher expected diesel consumption in 2021 also supports a potential rise in trucking demand next year. The US Energy Information Administration forecast distillate fuel oil consumption in the first quarter of 2021 to reach 4.01mn b/d in its December report, an increase from 3.97mn b/d in the first quarter of 2020. Successful implementation of the vaccines could also begin mitigating labor shortages, eventually removing the limitations to growth seen over the last several months.

By Jason Metko