Heavy rainfall increases Albanian power exports

Albanian state-owned utility Kesh's hydropower plants, the three largest in the country, are operating at full capacity after heavy rainfall in the past two weeks, resulting in the utility selling more power in the wholesale market and Albania switching to net exports this month.

The heavy rainfall has pushed Kesh's hydropower plants to a combined full capacity of 1.35GW with the firm so far selling a daily average of 202MW on the wholesale market and Albania turning to a net exporter of 70MW.

Kesh's three hydropower plants are located on the Drin river in northwest Albania and are arranged in a cascade, with the 500MW Fierza plant located at the top, followed by the 600MW Koman and the 250MW Vau I Dejes plants. They are the three largest hydropower plants in the country.

Heavy rainfall since 25 December resulted in the ramp-up to full capacity of the three plants. From 25 December to 12 January, Kukes — where the Drin originates — received 375mm of rainfall, compared with the long-term average of 60mm.

Natural water inflows in the cascade had reached up to 3,600 m³/s on 11 January but fell to 1,670 m/s earlier today. The discharge capacity is 430 m³/s for generation capacity and a further 700 m³/s through the gates of Vau I Dejes.

With the three Kesh hydropower plants at full capacity, Albania has so far in January turned to a net exporter for the first time since October. Month-to-date, Albania's scheduled cross-border flows averaged a net 70MW, after importing a net 486MW in December and 227MW in January 2020.

Albania has also turned to a net exporter to Montenegro for the first time since September 2018, with a net position of 54MW month-to-date. In 2020, Albanian scheduled net imports from Montenegro averaged 246MW.

Kesh has also turned to the wholesale market exclusively as a seller this month. The utility so far sold 82,420MWh through several tenders with various delivery profiles for 1-17 January, equivalent to a daily average of 202MW. In all of December, the firm sold 11,900MWh.

High rainfall also tightened the front-month spread between Albania and its neighbours. Greece and Albania were at parity for the front month on 4 January, after Greece had been at a €3.50/MWh premium on 21 December, with Albania already switching back to a net exporter at 16MW so far this month. The Bulgaria-Albania premium also narrowed to €0.60/MWh from €4.65/MWh in the same period.

But the Albanian power balance could tighten later this month, as rainfall is forecast to slow and minimum night-time temperatures will dip well below the long-term average from tonight. By 17 January, minimum night-time temperatures could reach as low as minus 6°C, compared with a long-term average of around 3-4°C and are forecast to remain below seasonal levels at least until 21 January.

At the same time, Serbia cut off its connection with Albania and Kosovo in response to Kosovo's independence as a separate power zone, meaning the countries now depend on flows from Montenegro, Greece and North Macedonia.

By Nicolas Kyriakoglou