Atlantic basin refinery runs lowest in 50 years: IEA

Atlantic basin refining throughput will remain below 1971 levels this year, the IEA said today in its latest monthly Oil Market Report, despite growth relative to 2020.

The region's refinery intake fell to 38.7mn b/d last year, the lowest since IEA records began in 1971. It forecasts that runs will rise to 40.6mn b/d this year, still below the level of 50 years ago.

Globally, refining throughput will return to annual growth in the second quarter for the first time in two years, the agency said, led by a robust increase in demand for transport fuels. The rise will mark a reverse in course from its expected 1.8mn-1.9mn b/d year-on-year fall in the current quarter.

Most of the second-quarter gains will come from the Atlantic basin, the agency said, where refinery intake has so far lagged that east of Suez and is therefore rising from a lower base. But, this is also the result of a seasonal slowdown in Japan and Korea, and easing Chinese refining growth from the second quarter. In contrast, the IEA expects US refiners to increase run rates between the first and third quarter to meet peak summer demand.

Overall, the IEA said that global refining throughput will rise by 4.2mn b/d this year after a 7.2mn b/d decline in 2020. At 78.6mn b/d, global throughput will be lower than it was in 2015.

The agency also noted an acceleration in global implied crude and products stock draws, from 1.56mn b/d in the third quarter to 2.24mn b/d in the fourth quarter. A monthly decline of 1.44mn b/d in December left total inventories at 3.063mn bl, 138.3mn bl above the five-year average, with drawing oil-products stocks leading the fall. Initial January data show continued declines, the IEA said.

By Harry Riley-Gould