Texas power sector struggles against winter storm

A severe winter storm that spread into Texas continues to disrupt the state's electricity generation with shut-in wells, stunted natural gas distribution and frozen wind turbines.

Freezing temperatures spread through the state over the holiday weekend, leading to curtailed Permian basin oil production in the form wellhead freeze-offs. The weather curtailed associated gas production and stretched the limit of gas transmission networks already taxed by high demand reflected in spot markets. Prices at the Waha hub in west Texas — a key indicator for the value of Permian gas — averaged $158.20/mmBtu on 12 February, a single-day record high for the index.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) estimated that peak demand on 14 February hit a record 69,150 MW, topping the prior record set in 2018 by 3,200 MW.

Power generation in Texas began going offline in the early hours yesterday, and ERCOT began rotating outages through its control area in the state. Approximately 34,000 MW was taken off the grid yesterday, ERCOT said.

While ERCOT noted that by 14 February it was already dealing with frozen wind turbines and limited gas supplies, additional generating units tripped offline overnight when the weather worsened. ERCOT said losses were across all fuel types.

South Texas nuclear reactor 1 went offline yesterday, according to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Replacing that 1,250MW of power generation with gas would add 347mn cf/d to demand.

ERCOT said it expected some generators to return to service today, and it also forecast higher renewables output. Wind generation was below 3,000 MW at the start of today, but was expected to peak at 7,500 MW. ERCOT said it also expected solar and traditional thermal generation sources to increase output today.

Capacity shortfalls, loss of power, and other challenges have spread through most Texas gas pipeline companies, both from supply zones and into delivery areas, despite efforts to reduce the weather-driven issues. The Texas Railroad Commission (RRC) issued emergency orders on 12 February to curtail natural gas transportation, delivery or sale for purposes other than serving "human needs" customers.

Kinder Morgan's El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) said late yesterday it was concerned that overnight recovery would not be enough for today's demand loads due to the severe supply losses in the Permian basin. The pipeline shut in 29 separate receipt points in west Texas today, and reduced capacity at eight others. EPNG system linepack levels ended yesterday at 7.7bn cf, a drop of 11pc from the previous day.

The Houston pipeline meter with Valley Crossing pipeline in south Texas will be scheduled down to 300,000 mmBtu/d starting today's gas day because of underperformance. Valley Crossing will allow quantities at the KM Tejas pipeline meter to reach their scheduled amounts on an intraday basis.

By David Haydon