Transport sector needs paradigm shift to decarbonise

Decarbonising the transport sector by 2050 will require a complete and immediate paradigm shift to overcome the significant hurdles that remain in the pathway to transition, according to attendees of an IP Week panel on the transport sector's journey to net-zero emissions.

It will require a two-pronged approach of investing in new technologies and reducing transport demand, according to component lead for transport policy and climate change for the German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) Verena Flues. Electrification of land vehicles will be essential, but it will not be the "silver bullet" in achieving net-zero emissions in the transport sector because of "resource bottlenecks" and limited renewable energy supply, she said. Alongside electrification, demand must fall and be channelled to more energy-efficient modes of transport, she said.

Flues outlined an "avoid-shift-improve" approach implemented by GIZ. "Our first priority has to be avoiding unnecessary motorised travel and reducing the travel distances," which can be achieved through effective land-use planning and incentives. Then "we have to shift from individualised motorised travel to more sustainable modes," such as using public transport, and walking and cycling in cities. And finally, any remaining motorised travel must be electrified, along with smaller and lighter vehicles and car-sharing policies, she said.

Ending fossil fuel subsidies, introducing elevated carbon prices and taxing harmful sub-sectors will also be required to achieve full decarbonisation, Flues said, noting that the German government currently spends €28bn/yr ($34bn/yr) on fossil fuel subsidies. By "internalising the external costs", transport prices will rise, which should in turn push down demand, she said.

The need to intensify policy support for decarbonisation in the transport fuel sector was echoed by UAE airline Etihad's head of sustainability and business excellence Mariam Al-Qubaisi. Etihad's primary decarbonisation efforts are focused on operational efficiency, but sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and carbon offsets will also play a role, she said.

At the moment, SAF production is mainly confined to Europe and North America, but Etihad is working on sourcing it locally. "The transport of SAF to the UAE is not going to come without a carbon footprint, obviously, and therefore we are planning to start plugging in SAF within certain ports, but that's a work in progress," Al-Qubaisi said.

Etihad is also "looking into" biofuels and hydrogen production, but achieving scale remains a hurdle, she said. "We need governments and policymakers to expedite scale" for new technologies to become commercially viable, she said, for example with emissions trading schemes.

Scale was also noted as a barrier to decarbonisation in the shipping industry by Torben Nørgaard, head of energy and fuels at the Maersk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping. Replacing around 250-300mn t/yr of fuel oil will require a major scaling up of renewable power and clean fuels production, he said. To decarbonise the sector, around 2,000 GW of renewable capacity will be required, which will take roughly 8-10 years to install at current rates of at around 200-250 GW/yr.

By Saleem Rizvi and Harry Riley-Gould