Cold wave impact on European rapeseed uneven

The sudden cold wave that has settled across much of western Europe this week is anticipated to hit rapeseed more than other major crops, but the impact could be more severe in central France than northern France or Germany owing to varying stages of growth.

Minimum temperatures in Germany and France — Europe's first and second-largest rapeseed producers — fell rapidly from the Easter weekend to hit below freezing levels this week. Overnight temperatures in central and eastern France, with sizeable rapeseed production, decreased by around 15°C in less than a week to hit 10°C below seasonal norms yesterday.

The cold wave followed exceptionally mild weather in late March, with parts of France recording their highest temperatures on record for the month, giving an early boost to rapeseed bloom.

French agriculture minister Julien Denormandie yesterday announced that an "agricultural disaster" scheme would be introduced to help farmers affected by the cold wave.

And French oilseed producers union Fop and national agriculture advisory body Apca this week said rapeseed was among the hardest hit crops as it is at the start of bloom. Spring barley, which was planted last autumn, could also be impacted to a lesser extent, Marne regional chamber of agriculture said.

Rapeseed production yield could fall by as much as 30pc in areas where overnight temperatures fell as low as minus 7-8°C this week mostly in central and central-eastern France, according to an Argus survey among French farmers. But the seed fill stage, due to start in late April and last well into June, is also expected to impact yields. At the same time, rain later this month could help offset the potential impact of frost from this week.

And lower temperatures in northern France and Germany this winter compared with the rest of France meant that rapeseed there is at a much earlier stage of growth, further limiting the impact of the cold wave.

EU rapeseed production in the 2021-22 marketing year (July-June) was most recently forecast to edge up to 16.7mn t from 16.1mn t a year earlier, but below the 2015-20 average of 18.2mn t, the European Commission said in its short-term agricultural outlook in late March. German output is anticipated to grow by 7.5pc on the year to 3.78mn t, while French production is expected to edge up by 2.4pc to 3.32mn t.

By Bilal Muftuoglu