Canadian, Australian wheat output to fall from records

Wheat output in Canada and Australia is anticipated to fall from near record levels of 2020-21 next year, as a return of drier conditions in both countries is expected to weigh on yields.

Canadian wheat production in the 2021-22 marketing year (August-July) is forecast to fall to 33.50mn t from an estimated 35.18mn t this year, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).

This is as wheat acreage is expected to fall to a combined 9.81mn hectares (ha) from 10.02mn ha a year earlier, partially on the account of some farmers switching to durum wheat from spring wheat production.

And dry conditions so far this year, contrasting with the 2020-21 planting season, are anticipated to weigh on yields — forecast at 3.41 t/ha for 2021-22, down from 3.51 t/ha this year.

Lower production is also anticipated to cut Canadian wheat exports to 24.1mn t next year from 27.1mn t this year. Domestic policies in Algeria and Italy — the largest buyers of Canadian durum wheat — are also expected to pressure Canada's export of the product.

In Australia, wheat output in the next marketing year (October-September) is anticipated to fall to 27mn t from a record 33mn t this year, but comfortably above 15.2mn t in 2019-20 and the 10-year average.

Planting for the upcoming season has been off to a strong start, as above-average rainfall in 2020 has boosted soil moisture in Australia's wheat-growing regions. But expectations of slightly dry conditions in May-July are set to pull wheat yields to 2.05 t/ha from 2.56 t/ha in this marketing year.

That being said, high wheat prices in the global markets, paired with Chinese import duties on Australian barley, are expected to support wheat acreage in 2021-22 — forecast at 13.2mn ha, against 13mn t this year.

By Bilal Muftuoglu