Japan urged to prepare for challenge of power shortages

Japan is being urged to take precautionary measures against the risk of tight electricity supplies during the summer and winter peak demand seasons, as pressure grows to avoid any repeat of last winter's severe power shortages.

The country's trade and industry ministry (Meti) is discussing necessary measures to tackle possible power shortages in the summer and winter of the current 2021-22 fiscal year ending on 31 March, targeting to come up with a plan by the end of this month, Meti minister Hiroshi Kajiyama said on 14 May.

Kajiyama has warned Japan may experience the most severe power supply conditions in the past few years this summer, with the difficulty of ensuring enough power generation capacity in the Tokyo area during the following winter. He has ordered government authorities to prepare for it, while calling for the country's power producers and retailers to secure supply capacity in advance and for consumers to conserve their electricity use.

Meti is also planning to provide timely and adequate information related to the electricity supply and demand situation. Such disclosures are deemed necessary to prevent power shortages, as a lack of information was outlined as one of reasons that caused tighter electricity and fuel supplies in January this year.

This produced updated forecasts made by power agency the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operator (Occto) late last month. This showed Japan will have an average of 4.3pc surplus power supplies for July, 4.9pc for August and 7.5pc for September, if the hottest weather in the past decade hits the country again. These are above the minimum reserve of 3pc for any emergencies but below an ideal surplus of 8pc.

The outlook reflects flexible power distribution beyond utilities' service areas. But the situation will be exacerbated without inter-regional supplies, prompting forecasts that the Kansai area will face a shortage of 1,000MW for July and 770MW for August. Reserve levels in Tokyo area will also fall to 2.6pc in July and 2.7pc in August, while the Chubu area will see no spare capacity in July and only a 1.5pc surplus in August.

Occto also warned in late March that power firms should take precautions to ensure stable electricity supplies for next winter, as reserve levels in seven regions are likely to fall below 3pc if a major cold snap hits Japan again, as it did last winter. The Tokyo area would be worse hit than other areas, with demand expected to outstrip supplies from January-February in similar weather conditions.

Japan experienced a severe power shortage in January this year because of a series of factors, including extended icy weather, higher than expected demand, lower nuclear and solar output and a shortage of thermal generation fuels, especially LNG.

By Motoko Hasegawa