Black Sea loses share in N African wheat market

Ukraine and Russia so far this year have accounted for a smaller share of North African wheat imports, having faced stronger competition from export-oriented producers from the Americas.

Russian wheat exports to Morocco totalled 83,200t in January-April, down from 304,000t in the same period last year, GTT customs data show. Russian shipments accounted for 4.5pc of Morocco's wheat receipts this year, down from 11.4pc last year.

And Ukraine's wheat shipments to Morocco fell to 90,000t in the first four months of the year, down from 121,000t in January-April 2020.

Argentina returned to the Moroccan market, having shipped 312,000t of the crop so far in 2021 and accounting for 16.7pc of total Moroccan wheat imports, second only to France — Morocco's traditional wheat supplier. This would put Argentina's wheat exports to Morocco at their highest since 2012, with the country shipping just 92,400t in 2019 and none last year.

Canada also accounted for a higher share of Moroccan wheat imports this year, despite an overall decline on the year amid improving prospects for domestic wheat output. Canadian wheat exports to Morocco stood at 262,400t this year, inching down from 274,000t from last year, but increasing their share by around 4 percentage points to 14pc.

Meanwhile, Ukraine — traditionally the largest wheat supplier in Tunisia — has been displaced by Bulgaria this year, with its shipments falling to 141,000t from 349,000t a year earlier.

Canada increased its market share in Tunisia, accounting for 21pc of the country's wheat receipts this year, up from 16pc a year earlier, despite a 10,000t year-on-year decline. Still, this was slower than the overall drop in Tunisian wheat imports during the same period.

Black Sea exporters continued to be displaced from the Algerian wheat market this year, with Canada and Argentina taking share from France, Germany and the Baltics. Canada's exports so far this year have totalled 451,000t, already above 419,000t for the whole of 2020. At the same time, Argentina returned to wheat exports to Algeria after a two-year hiatus, with its shipments so far in 2021 reaching 92,000t.

Russian producers have been partially displaced from some of their traditional buyer markets this year, following the introduction of a €50/t ($61/t) levy that applied on their wheat exports on 1 March-1 June. The levy is being replaced with a floating export tax for later this year, with the rate standing at $28.10/t for 2-8 June.

This contrasts with Canadian producers that have stepped up exports in the 2020-21 marketing year, seeking to benefit from high wheat prices in the global markets. Canadian wheat exports this marketing year are expected to total 26.75mn t, up from 24.35mn t last year. But this also suggests that the country's stocks by the end of this year could be as low as 4.75mn t, down from 5.5mn t last year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada data show.

By Bilal Muftuoglu