Turkey ferrous: Price flat on three deals

The Turkish scrap import price was flat today on three deals from the UK and Russia.

The Argus daily HMS 1/2 80:20 cfr Turkey steel scrap assessment was stable at $501/t cfr today. It has remained stable for the sixth consecutive business day during a period in which mills have withdrawn from buying and then returned, and it is the longest number of days without any movement since the holiday period in December 2020.

A UK supplier sold HMS 1/2 80:20 at $504/t and shredded at $524/t cfr Marmara for July shipment.

A second UK supplier was heard to sell a full cargo of shredded at $521/t cfr Izmir for July shipment.

A St. Petersburg supplier sold HMS 1/2 80:20 at $498/t and bonus at $508/t cfr Marmara for July shipment.

The Marmara buyer has bought three deep-sea cargoes at an average price of $501/t cfr for premium HMS 1/2 80:20 this week for July shipment, according to Argus' calculation.

These three deals mean no more than 15 cargoes are estimated to now trade for July shipment.

It may be significant that no continental European sale has been heard in the past two weeks, and more so during the past two days in which Turkish mill demand has increased. German suppliers now widely expect mills to accept a very minimum of €40/t up on the month for E1 old scrap and €50/t up for new scrap from local mills for June deliveries. Demand for bushelling is strong and supply is tight because of lower output from many carmakers in Germany. Some suppliers are confident that they can sell bushelling in the next week at prices €50-60/t higher than May levels. North American offers to Turkey are also not heard today.

It is unclear at which price levels Turkish mills will be willing to bid for cargoes without shredded material. There is a clear difference in overall cargo price now for cargoes with shredded and those without. Mills are still unwilling to pay the levels suppliers expect for their shredded material based on domestic consumption levels, but mills are seemingly compensating by paying above market price for the HMS portion of the cargo.

Continental European suppliers with no shred to offer were understood to be seeking sales at a minimum level of $500/t cfr for their HMS 1/2 80:20 material. The euro has strengthened gradually throughout this week, hitting EUR1.22:$1 this afternoon.

The narrowing of Turkish mills' scrap-rebar margins means mills are largely looking to halt too much upward pressure on the scrap import price. But they have found domestic rebar demand since yesterday and may consider the currently still relatively wide scrap-rebar margins sustainable. Export rebar demand is also apparent in a $720-725/t fob range today.

Most mills this morning increased the equivalent USD-level of their domestic rebar offers, as they made larger volume sales yesterday after indicating to stockists that prices had bottomed. Demand appeared even stronger today, with traded volumes heard to be much larger. An Izmir mill sold around 35,000t at the equivalent of $700/t ex-works excluding VAT. A Marmara mill increased its offer to $720/t ex-works this morning, having sold at $690/t ex-works last week and $700/t ex-works yesterday.

On the Turkish short-sea scrap import market, western Adriatic HMS 1/2 80:20 suppliers have begun to increase their offer levels to around $475-480/t cif Marmara. The Argus daily A3 cif Marmara steel scrap assessment increased $2.50/t to $472.50/t cif.