Enagas forecasts strong October gas demand

Spanish gas system operator Enagas expects consumption in October to be well above recent-year averages.

Combined October demand is 1.01 TWh/d in Enagas' "normal" scenario, up from the three-year average for the month of 935 GWh/d.

The increase is driven almost exclusively by conventional consumption — combining households and industry — rising to 745 GWh/d from 680 GWh/d.

Enagas expects strong GDP growth and high demand at its LNG truck-loading facilities over the month.

Strong demand for the small-scale service resulted in congestion at Spain's truck-loading bays last winter. And Spanish energy regulator CNMC expects truck-loading demand to grow by 6.2pc/yr until 2025, up from 4.2pc/yr in 2015-19.

In its "high" scenario, which assumes stronger industrial activity, the operator projects conventional consumption at 803 GWh/d. But while industrial activity has held strong since March, a further increase could depend on the extent to which the renewed spread of the Covid-19 pandemic can be contained without the introduction of a new lockdown.

Localised measures have already been introduced in some municipalities across the country amid a spike in injections.

Power-sector gas burn in Enagas' "normal" scenario edges up to 258 GWh/d from the three-year average of 254 GWh/d. This assumes one nuclear reactor is unavailable, net power imports and low wind output.

By Silvia Fernandez Martinez