Denmark slashes gas production forecast

The Danish Energy Agency (DEA) has revised down its five-year gas production forecast by about 30pc compared with a year earlier.

The revision is largely because of Covid-19, which has delayed reconstruction of the Tyra complex, the DEA said. The complex's start-up has been pushed back to the second quarter of 2023 from mid-2022.

The DEA made the sharpest revision to its output projection for 2022-23. It sees 2022 output at 670mn m³, down from 2bn m³ under its previous forecast (see table). It expects Denmark to be a net gas importer in 2021-23.

And the agency forecasts output at lower than previously expected even for this year, before Tyra's earlier scheduled completion date. It puts production at 760mn m³ over the full year, down from 1bn m³ under its previous forecast.

Gas sales could peak in 2027 at around 3bn m³, based on the agency's recent forecasts. But this would still be down from just over 4bn m³ in 2018 before Tyra halted.

The lower production expectations are a result of declining technological and exploration resources, which the DEA has revised down by a quarter for gas sales from a year earlier. This is because of the North Sea Agreement of December 2020, under which Denmark committed to phasing out oil and gas production by 2050.

Denmark's proven gas reserves have been revised down by 2bn m³ on the year to 74bn m³, according to the DEA.

By Auguste Breteau