No German party meets climate ambitions: Study

None of Germany's political parties offers a "coherent concept" on how the country could meet its ambitious climate targets ahead of federal elections later this month, a study presented today concludes.

Of the five "democratic" parties standing in the elections on 26 September, the opposition Green party performs best, and the opposition pro-business liberal FDP party worst, according to analysis carried out by DIW Econ, the consulting arm of the German Institute for Economic Research.

The study authors disregarded the populist right-wing AfD party, which rejects the Paris climate agreement, and which is not considered as a coalition partner by the other parties.

The study was commissioned by think-tank Climate Neutrality and presented by Climate Neutrality director Rainer Baake, a former junior energy and environment minister.

Baake said that DIW Econ is "closing a gap" in its analysis of party manifestos from a climate policy angle. To date, analyses have typically focused on the pension, tax, or social proposals of party manifestos, Baake said.

Study lead author Claudia Kemfert specifically developed an evaluation system as a basis for the "climate policy accounting" carried out in the study, placing proposals into different categories — either sector-wise in the industry, energy, transport, buildings, and agriculture sectors, or in the three cross-sector categories of "natural sinks", "internalisation of external effects of CO2 emissions" and "international climate policy". DIW Econ then awarded points on the basis of all measures per category.

DIW Econ gives the Green party manifesto the most points, at 3.62 out of a maximum four. The Greens cover all aspects of climate policy, and offer concrete and "mostly suitable" proposals, the study says. But the Greens' proposals are rated under three points when it comes to international climate protection — the party is less convincing on measures to avoid carbon leakage, and regarding the "embedding of national climate protection measures in global structures and ambitions", DIW Econ says.

The Greens are almost certain to form part of the next coalition government, either with outgoing chancellor Angela Merkel's CDU/CSU group, or in a three-way coalition with the Social Democrat SPD and either the opposition left-wing party (the "Left") or the FDP.

The Left ranks second in DIW Econ's study, at 2.6 points. The party's manifesto is commended for its "good concepts" in the energy and transport sectors. But it neglects the issue of a "commensurate" carbon price, and also ignores the issues of measures in industry and at the international level, DIW Econ says.

The two outgoing government parties, the CDU/CSU and the SPD led by finance minister Olaf Scholz, rank significantly behind the Left, and at similar levels. The CDU/CSU is given 1.81 points and the SPD 1.79.

DIW Econ says that the two parties' proposals tend to be insufficiently concrete, and often unsuitable for reaching the necessary large greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction cuts in the remaining time until 2030.

The CDU/CSU comes up with slightly better ideas than the SPD when it comes to decarbonising industry, and on international climate policy. Conversely, the SPD has more ambitious ideas for the transport sector, DIW Econ says.

DIW Econ concedes that the FDP, which comes last at 1.24 points, has some good ideas regarding international climate policy and market-based carbon pricing. But the party ignores the agriculture and buildings sectors, and focuses exclusively on market-based mechanisms regarding the industry, energy and transport sectors. This makes the proposals insufficiently concrete, and inadequate given the limited time frame.

The FDP has been lambasted by the Greens, the Left and the SPD for its strong "free-market" emphasis on carbon pricing.

Germany's government and parliament shortly before the summer break passed the amended climate protection law, which stipulates a 65pc cut in GHG emissions by 2030 against 1990 levels. Germany last year met its target of a 40pc reduction against 1990, partly thanks to the lockdown measures introduced in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. But GHG emissions are likely to rebound by 6pc this year, energy think-tank Agora Energiewende warned last month.

DIW Econ stresses that even Germany's new climate targets are incompatible with the aim to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

By Chloe Jardine