Angolan crude exports to hit record low in November

Export loadings of Angolan crude in November will be the lowest on Argus' records that go back to 2007, a further sign of the structural decline facing the country's upstream sector.

The country's provisional loading programme comprises just 30 cargoes for a tally of 958,000 b/d, below the previous historic low of 991,000 b/d in July.

That exports are at such reduced levels is largely down to the rapid decline of Angola's ageing oil fields. Crude production fell by 140,000 b/d to 1.26mn b/d last year, and upstream regulator ANGP has said this could fall to nearly 500,000 b/d by the end of this decade.

The November total could have been lower still had state-owned Sonangol not decided to push back its cargo of Saturno from 22-23 October to 8-11 November. The deferral puts Saturno's loadings in November at 63,000 b/d, and none are now scheduled in October when the overall revised plan shows 1.15mn b/d on 37 cargoes.

An unusually low export programme for Nemba grade appears to be the main driver of the fall in November. Only one 950,000 bl cargo of the light-sweet grade is scheduled, giving an average of 32,000 b/d. This compares with 123,000 b/d planned for October and an average of 100,000 b/d so far this year. It is unclear if the Nemba platform will be undergoing any type of maintenance.

Loadings of medium-sweet Cabinda grade, which is exported from the same Malongo terminal as Nemba, will remain almost unchanged on the month at 95,000 b/d on three cargoes.

Lower exports are on the cards for Clov, Girassol, Gindungo, Kissanje and Plutonio grades. Exports of the former two will fall from 97,000 b/d in October to 67,000 b/d in November, and exports of the other three will all halve on the month to around 32,000 b/d each.

These declines will be partly offset by higher month-on-month exports for Mostarda grade, to 127,000 b/d from 92,000 b/d, and by the presence of one cargo of Mondo in November after none of the medium sweet grade were scheduled for October.

The provisional loading programme mirrors a preliminary version but the tally could change in a final schedule.

By Nicola De Sanctis