French gas demand could fall by 15pc by 2030

The French energy network open data initiative (ODRE) has forecast a 15pc drop in national gas consumption between this year and 2030.

ODRE expects gas consumption to fall to 399TWh by 2030 from 469TWh estimated for 2021 (see graph).

Residential demand — which accounts for about 35pc of the estimated 2021 total — is expected to fall by nearly a quarter by the end of the next decade. Consumption in industry, the second largest sector, is projected to fall by 14pc, while the centralised production of electricity and cogeneration is to drop by 31pc (see table). But this is partly offset by a forecast jump in the use of fuel for natural gas vehicles to 36.5TWh from just 5.4TWh estimated for 2021.

The data is modelled on three different scenarios which are all compatible with the French government's objective of carbon neutrality by 2050.

The "low gas scenario" anticipates a significant electrification of the mobility, industry and residential sectors as well as the development of substantial urban heating networks. The "high gas scenario" reflects greater uncertainty around the future place of gas used by households and buildings as well as potential greater use of renewable gas to decarbonise buildings.

And the "territories" scenario is modelled with the merging of regional dynamics and ambitions, notably the European Commission's 2016 plan for spatial planning, sustainable development and equality.

French gas and electricity system operators GRT Gaz, Terega and RTE created the ODRE platform in 2017. The French agency of natural gas vehicles (AFGNV), France's storage and LNG operators as well as meteorological agency Weathernews France more recently joined the initiative.

By Auguste Breteau

ODRE consumption scenarios TWh