Chile leaving ‘exceptionalism’ at the ballot box

Chile's next president will shape the course of one of the world's top future suppliers of critical minerals and green hydrogen, but for most voters, rising inflation and unrest are top of mind ahead of 21 November elections.

The four main presidential candidates span the ideological spectrum, from far-left former student union leader Gabriel Boric, who promises to remake Chile, to arch-conservative José Antonio Kast, who vows to preserve it.

Political nostalgia imbues the tense electoral climate from both flanks. Boric and his coalition, which includes the Communist Party, take inspiration from Chile's former president Salvador Allende, a leftist icon who was toppled with US backing in the throes of the Cold War in 1973. Kast and his supporters, which include part of Chile's deep-pocketed business community, defend the pro-market economic legacy of former dictator Augusto Pinochet, who ruled from 1973 until the restoration of democracy in 1990.

Despite their contrasting platforms, both candidates have sparked doubts over their ability to govern in the wake of violent 2019 protests. Critics say they offer unrealistic quick-fix proposals that will derail Chile's economy.

In between Boric and Kast are center-left former senate president and former education minister Yasna Provoste and center-right former social development minister and BancoEstado president Sebastian Sichel. Final polls issued last week put Boric and Kast in the lead, but Sichel may have captured some of Kast's support after a better-than-expected performance in a 15 November debate. A split vote on the right could provide a long-shot opening for Provoste.

The race is likely to head into a 19 December run-off between the two top vote-getters. The winner will replace center-right president Sebastian Piñera, a former businessman who survived a second congressional impeachment attempt this week.

Although Piñera is deeply unpopular at home, his administration has drawn kudos abroad for sound management of the Covid-19 pandemic and leadership at the Cop 26 climate summit in Scotland earlier this month.

No different from the rest

The polarized elections, which are taking place in parallel to a controversial process to rewrite the Pinochet-era constitution, are already alienating domestic and international investors. Growing nervousness over the future of a country long considered a stable economic and political bastion compared with volatile neighbors Argentina, Peru and Bolivia has sunk the value of the local peso currency, while government-sanctioned withdrawals from privately managed pension funds are aggravating inflation.

The elections, which also encompass congressional and municipal seats, are taking place as Chile looks to position itself as a climate champion and reliable trade partner with vanguard low-carbon credentials. The outgoing administration has overseen a surge of solar and wind energy projects that it plans to leverage into green hydrogen, even as it promotes the country's abundant copper and lithium reserves that are vital to the global shift away from fossil fuels. Santiago has pledged to reach carbon neutrality by 2050.

Piñera will pass the presidential sash to his successor in March 2022.

By Patricia Garip