Straits delays disrupt Black Sea crude loadings

Turkish straits hold-ups added more than two weeks to Mediterranean-Black Sea round-trips this month, write Diana Mukhametzyanova and Ivan Shamalo

Crude tankers arrived late at Black Sea ports in November because of long hold-ups to passage through the Turkish straits, linking the Mediterranean and Black seas. The delays had knock-on effects for scheduled loadings of Urals, Siberian Light and CPC Blend crudes.

Delays for a return journey through the straits reached 19 days in mid-November — the highest since January 2020 — compared with four days at the same time last month. The slowdown began in mid-October, reflecting seasonal factors, such as heavy fog and reduced daylight hours, and construction of a new suspension bridge across the Dardanelles, traders say. Delays had reduced to nine days northbound and seven days southbound towards the end of this month

The Turkish straits comprise the Bosporus and Dardanelles — 30km long and 0.7-3.7km wide, and 60km long and 1.2-6km wide, respectively.

There were 28 Aframax (85,000-119,000 dwt) and Suezmax (120,000-199,000 dwt) tankers waiting to pass through the Dardanelles on 15 November and 27 vessels waiting to pass through the Bosporus. Large tankers can navigate the straits only in daylight hours, noticeably fewer in autumn and winter.

At Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, the Fos Picasso is late for loading an 80,000t Siberian Light cargo scheduled for 12-13 November, pipeline and terminal operator Transneft says. And the Alatau has not yet arrived for an 80,000t Urals cargo that was expected to load on 13-14 November.

The Nevskiy Prospect arrived at Novorossiysk on 11 November to pick up 80,000t of Siberian Light that had been scheduled to load on 8-9 November and another 80,000t of Siberian Light loaded on the New Amorgos on 7 November, rather than the scheduled 5-6 November, shipping agents say.

At the nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal at Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka, eight tankers booked to load CPC Blend this month have been delayed, according to shipping agents — the Saturn Moon, Antarctic, Matala, Nissos Christiana, Pserimos, Seacalm, Nordic Light and Eagle Bintulu.

Rising costs

Hold-ups in the Turkish straits pushed up freight rates and demurrage costs. Black Sea-Mediterranean Aframax rates rose by 27.5 points on the month to around WS130 in mid-November. Suezmax rates were 7.5 points higher than in mid-October at WS82.5, having hit WS87.5 at the beginning of this month.

Aframax demurrage rates increased by $6,000/d to $29,000/d, while fees for Suezmax vessels were $500/d higher than a month earlier at $27,500/d.

Combined exports of Urals and Siberian Light from Novorossiysk are scheduled to rise by 6pc on the month to 429,000 b/d (1.77mn t) in November — the highest since June. And planned CPC Blend loadings at Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka are up by 4pc against the October programme at 1.42mn b/d (5.38mn t) — the highest since February. Azeri Light crude exports from Georgia's Black Sea port of Supsa are scheduled at a steady 60,000 b/d (240,000t) this month.

Black Sea Urals discounts to North Sea Dated widened by 55¢/bl from the start of this month to $1.70/bl and $1.85/bl on 10 November, for 80,000t and 140,000t cargoes, respectively, amid reduced trading activity. But discounts narrowed by 50¢/bl on 17 November and remain at $1.20/bl and $1.35/bl, respectively.

Turkey has started building the Istanbul Canal, connecting the Black and Marmara seas. Construction of the waterway — running parallel to the Bosporus strait to the west of the city — should take around seven years, at an estimated cost of $15bn-25bn. Around 45,000-50,000 vessels pass through the Bosporus each year, the Turkish transport ministry says, and this could reach 78,000/yr by 2050.