Updates ATA trucking data from November.
Trucking volumes in 2022 should continue their upward gains from the second half of this year, but potential Covid-19 vaccine mandates could exacerbate a driver shortage for the sector.
US truck tonnage rose for the fourth straight month in November, the latest month of data available, from strong factory output, according to the American Trucking Associations (ATA). The group's November seasonally adjusted truck tonnage index of 114.5 was up by 4.3pc from 2021's index low of 109.8 set in July, which was brought on by supply chain issues from the effects of the pandemic, as well as an ongoing driver shortage.
The index as of November has risen 4.3pc over the last four months and was 2.5pc higher than the same month the previous year. ATA's index is calculated from surveys on tonnage hauled by fleets with 100 points awarded for each 2,015 metric tonnes hauled.
The trucking industry's current driver shortage may deepen in the future, the effects from the pandemic notwithstanding. An October ATA report estimates the truck driver shortage would reach an historic high of just over 80,000 drivers in 2021, with the most affected segment in longer-haul, or non-local truckload markets. By the end of the decade, ATA estimates the driver shortage could reach 160,000 drivers, based on an increase in the average age of current drivers, as well as expected freight growth.
A significant reduction in trucking volumes in 2022 could begin as early as January if US and Canadian Covid-19 vaccine mandates go into effect. The ATA, along with state trucking associations in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, sued the administration of President Joe Biden in early November over a mandate which requires businesses with 100 employees or more to be fully vaccinated or conduct regular testing starting on 4 January. ATA's chief executive Chris Spear told the US House Transportation Committee in November that 37pc of drivers, or more than 2.5mn truckers, would quit rather than comply with the mandate, noting that 3.7pc of the workforce quitting would be "catastrophic."
A US district court in Georgia temporally halted the mandate in early December saying it was "costly, laborious and likely to result in a reduction in available members of the workforce." The US Justice Department is appealing the verdict.
Another vaccine mandate announced in November by the Biden administration would require all essential foreign travelers to be fully vaccinated by 22 January. A group of 15 US Senators sent a letter to the administration on 10 December, calling for an exception for cross border truckers.
"There are approximately 14,000 total truck entries along the US-Canada border hauling more than $846mn of goods," the senators said. "Any disruptions to the continuity of US-Canada trade would likely have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond our shared border."
The Canadian government has enacted a similar cross-border vaccination mandate scheduled to take effect on 15 January. The Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA) has estimated up to 22,000 of its drivers, and more than 31,000 members representing the Private Motor Truck Council of Canada (PMTC), would leave the cross-border market if the mandate takes effect. The MPTC has asked for a delay of the mandate to at least mid-April.
