Viewpoint: Nearby tightness to support Nola urea

The wide differential between global replacement costs and spot trade at Nola should support US urea prices into the first quarter as domestic distributors vie to attract limited imports.

Competing demand from India, Europe and Brazil early during the first quarter amid limited offshore availability should support Nola prices, but the US is unlikely to begin attracting the estimated 1.9mn-2.4mn metric tonnes of remaining urea imports for spring until the gap between domestic and global values closes.

Nola urea prices since late October have traded at more than a $100/short ton discount to replacement costs from the Middle East — which supplied more than half of offshore imports in the past three seasons — after volatile second and third quarters during which US prices ebbed and flowed from a nearly $33/st premium to a $92/st discount to replacement costs.

Various extended domestic plant turnarounds during the third quarter and a heavily favored UAN product mix brought forward import demand during the fourth quarter, a seasonally illiquid period, and left Nola exposed to global price swings during the first half of the 2021-22 season. Offshore imports during the quarter are estimated at 1.32mn t, compared with the 629,500-1.15mn t imported during the same period from 2018-20, according to Census Bureau data.

That exposure to global prices, and subsequent firmness, is expected to persist into February after India soaks up the bulk of January availability globally, leaving the US to largely compete with Europe and Brazil during the quarter.

But global price depreciation is expected in the first quarter after India withdraws from the spot market and hand-to-mouth buying weighs on key supply origins, enabling US consumers to return in earnest and attract imports.

US farmers are primed to increase corn production in 2022, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), supporting bullish annual nitrogen consumption sentiment.

Careening fertilizer affordability this season should spare spring nitrogen consumption. Retailers are instead expected to purchase on a hand-to-mouth basis and potentially cause an in-season logistical bottleneck to further buoy spring prompt values.

Retailers and wholesalers ended the 2021 season with minimal carryover inventory and faced thin domestic supplies amid production outages, prolonged further by Hurricane Ida bringing major production facilities off line for nearly two weeks in late August and early September.

Upriver distributors in key urea consuming areas struggled to position product after Ida crippled the Mississippi river distribution system for one month, driving regional prices to an unseasonable differential to the Nola barge market during the fourth quarter and likely sustaining the wide spread into April.

Twin Cities warehouse values soared in October to average a $72.5/st premium to Nola, about $30/st higher than the typical spread during the same period in 2018 and 2019. Prices stair-stepped higher through mid-December, dragging the spread to Nola more than $50-70/st above the prior two seasons to average $119/st — a trend that is expected to persist until river open in late March or early April.

By Connor Hyde