Viewpoint: Mexico reliance on US gas to strengthen

Mexico's demand for US natural gas grew to a record high in 2021, with imports expected to grow in 2022 despite political uncertainty.

Even as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador calls for energy independence, Mexico remains heavily reliant on gas imports for power generation, most of which comes into the country via US pipeline interconnections. Gas imports from the US made up 76pc of Mexico's supplies by the middle of 2021, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), a 36 percentage point increase from the same time in 2015.

US exports by pipeline to Mexico averaged around 6 Bcf/d (170mn m³) in January-August, according to EIA data, 12pc higher than the same eight months in 2020. Pipeline exports reached a peak of 7.4 Bcf/d on 17 June as cooling needs combined with recovering industrial demand from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mexico's own gas production and LNG imports have fallen as pipelines between the two countries come on line. State-owned Pemex produced an average 4.6 Bcf/d of gas in October, down by 4.1pc from the same time in 2020.Pemex aims to boost production to 5.25 Bcf/d of natural gas by 2022, but it has frequently missed output targets.

Gas demand will likely increase over the next several years as Mexico's electricity needs grow with industrial activity returning to pre-pandemic levels. Though power reform remains a key 2022 concern among the country's business community, the question is whether Mexico's public sector can provide sufficient generation capacity, not whether demand will abate.

Lopez Obrador sent a constitutional electricity reform bill to congress in October that would cap private-sector participation at 46pc. The move would cancel private-sector permits for power generation totaling 40,924MW, or 48pc, of Mexico's installed capacity, essentially making Mexico's state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) dominant in the power sector.

CFE has announced plans for several power plants, indicating expected demand growth. Though little public information is available, CFE's combined projects would increase gas demand in Mexico by approximately 785mn cf/d, according to Eduardo Prud'homme, co-partner at energy consulting firm Gadex. More than half of the projects have estimated start dates of 2024.

Despite the anticipated demand growth for gas-fired power, private-sector investments for gas and power in Mexico are uncertain following Lopez Obrador's shift away from 2013 energy policy reforms. Lopez Obrador's regulatory and legislative moveshave led to postponements of power and manufacturing projects, potentially stunting growth through the remainder of his term, which is set to end in September 2024.

Increased gas interconnection projects within Mexico remain jammed by environmental grievances, negotiations with state agencies and other political issues. TC Energy has repeatedly postponed the completion of its 886mn cf/d Tula-Villa de Reyes natural gas pipeline to 2022. Delays first stemmed from issues related to the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by contract negotiations with CFE. Other lines have been delayed as indigenous groups opposed the pipeline routes.

But pipelines connecting to Mexico have continued to progress in the US, increasing potential US export capacity. The 2 Bcf/d Whistler pipeline — which came on line in July — added a new connection from the Permian basin of west Texas and New Mexico to the Agua Dulce Hub in southeast Texas. Agua Dulce is a supply point for several pipelines that cross the Texas-Mexico border.

TC Energy plans to expand its North Baja natural gas pipeline system — which serves power generators in southern California and Mexico's Baja Peninsula — with a potential startup in 2022, according to EIA data.

Mexico's gas market conditions have also started to more closely track US market conditions as the US-Mexico pipeline network has expanded, particularly between northern Mexico states and west US hubs. Prices at the Waha hub — the main indicator for the value of Permian gas — averaged $3.28/mmBtu for flow in December 2021, up by 36pc from December 2020. The El Encino index in Chihuahua state, which is supplied by the Permian basin, averaged $3.89/mmBtu for December 2021, a 61¢/mmBtu premium to Waha for the same period. El Encino prices averaged a slightly wider 68¢/mmBtu premium in November 2021.

By David Haydon