UK January LNG receipts could hit record high

The UK could receive a record number of LNG cargoes this month, with some of the supply effectively being rerouted to EU markets.

The most recent tanker to declare for the UK was the 155,000m³ Kmarin Emerald, previously named British Emerald, which is expected at the 14.8mn t/yr Isle of Grain terminal on 24 January. It cast off from the US' 15mn t/yr Freeport liquefaction plant last night.

This latest addition takes the UK's booked LNG deliveries for January to 24. The UK has only ever received more cargoes in a single month twice before — in December 2019 and April 2011.

The UK is already on course to receive its most ever US deliveries in a single month, following a string of declarations in recent days (see graph).

The configuration of the UK's LNG imports is much changed from early last decade. Qatari cargoes made up the majority of UK deliveries in 2011, but just one receipt from the country is expected this month. And only two Russian cargoes have been booked, as many tankers carrying Russian LNG have instead headed to Belgium's 7.5mn t/yr Zeebrugge terminal — although some of these transshipped their cargoes at the terminal for delivery elsewhere.

This influx of LNG means the UK has received more supply than it could absorb in recent weeks, with surplus gas being shipped on to other markets — a pattern more common in summer, when UK consumption is much weaker.

The UK has exported to Belgium through the Interconnector on most recent days, although net UK imports through the line are nominated for today. The extra gas arriving in Belgium has allowed for stronger exports on to Germany and the Netherlands.

And the NBP balance-of-January market has held below neighbouring markets in recent days, suggesting that supply could continue to be shipped on to the EU in the coming weeks.

By Paul Martin

Quick UK LNG months cargoes (no)