Biden foreign policy finds traction with Russia

Washington's threats of new sanctions against Russia and equally hardline talk from Moscow are providing the backdrop for the first serious attempt in more than a decade to reset US-Russia relations.

Talks between senior US and Russian foreign and defence officials in Geneva on 10-11 January and subsequent broader discussions with European participation within the Nato and OSCE defence organisations last week have accomplished little, but they should reassure Moscow that it can do business with US president Joe Biden. For the first time since the Soviet collapse, the White House is willing to at least discuss Moscow's demand for "security guarantees" — the Kremlin's code for non-interference on its western borders and preventing a further entrenchment of US military posturing in Russia's neighbourhood, particularly Ukraine.

Given the antagonism that has defined US-Russia relations in recent years, launching talks to defuse tensions between the countries comes across almost as a breakthrough for Biden's foreign policy. The US Democrats have blasted Moscow since 2016 for its alleged interference in US elections, with Biden himself calling Russian president Vladimir Putin a "killer" last year. But Biden's White House has already taken steps that his predecessor Donald Trump was criticised for even attempting, such as co-operating with Moscow on cybersecurity issues. The Biden administration has also waived sanctions against Russian state-controlled Gazprom's 55bn m³/yr Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project and is pushing back against congressional attempts — most recently on 13 January — to force the White House to kill the project with further sanctions.

"Sanctions blackmail is the only tool of US diplomacy these days, and we are trying to change that, trying to vaccinate them against it," says Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov, who led his country's delegation in the Geneva talks. Averting a hypothetical Russian invasion of Ukraine — that Moscow denies contemplating — is the immediate subject of US-Russia diplomacy, but Moscow's demands are far-reaching, including a rejection of Kyiv's bid to join Nato and the removal of advanced US tactical equipment from eastern Europe.

It's all about you

Ukraine's admission to Nato is unlikely to happen any time soon, but Washington says it will not contemplate a firm rejection of the concept. It is willing to discuss other issues, such as placement of missiles or conducting US-led military exercises along Russia's periphery, despite concerns from Nato's eastern European members that it gives Moscow a veto power over their national security considerations. The US is reassuring its allies that it will not unilaterally agree a sphere of influence for Russia in Europe — the US approach is "nothing about you without you" in talks with Russia, deputy US secretary of state Wendy Sherman says.

Moscow may celebrate Washington's willingness to discuss the previously taboo subjects and the treatment of Russia as an equal partner in geopolitics, but Biden's motivation for finding some common ground with Putin is driven by the need to reorient US diplomatic and military resources to deal with China's assertiveness in Asia-Pacific. Removing existing US sanctions against Russia also looks a remote prospect, so long as Russia continues to back separatists in eastern Ukraine. But the tentative improvement in US-Russia relations has helped make progress in US-Iran nuclear talks that could result in the removal of US sanctions against Iran — another Biden priority. Any progress in talks over Ukraine should help calm gas markets in Europe as well — US and EU politicians and IEA executive director Fatih Birol have accused Russia of deliberately withholding natural gas supply from Europe in recent months to achieve political objectives.

By Haik Gugarats