Hydrogen to meet 12pc of energy demand by 2050: Irena

The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) forecasts low-carbon hydrogen could meet 12pc of final energy use by 2050, if policies are put in place to limit global temperatures to a 1.5°C increase.

Its Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation report projects global demand to near quadruple to around 410mn t/yr from 120mn t/yr in 2020, with green hydrogen produced from renewable energy supplying two-thirds and a third for blue hydrogen that is largely derived from gas but has its carbon emissions captured, stored or reused. Fossil-derived grey hydrogen, almost all the hydrogen currently produced, is expected to be entirely phased out.

Green hydrogen by 2030 may become cost-competitive with blue hydrogen in China because of low-cost electrolysers and in India and Brazil where renewables are cheap and gas is expensive, the report said.

"The expected cost reduction in green hydrogen coupled with stricter climate mitigation policies means that investments in blue or grey [hydrogen] may end up stranded," the report said.

More than 30 countries now have hydrogen plans compared with only Japan in 2017, with the emergence of a low-carbon hydrogen market likely to affect economic and political relations.

"Australia, Chile, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States are best placed to emerge as major clean hydrogen producers by 2050", the report said. Australia, Saudi Arabia and the US can retain their role as energy exporters but countries such as Chile, Morocco and Namibia could flip to become net exporters of energy and "gain in geostrategic importance".

Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe and Latin America will probably need imports to satisfy demand, the report said, highlighting that Germany and Japan are already engaged in diplomacy to secure access to hydrogen.

Around 85pc of hydrogen is currently produced and consumed on site because transporting the gas is impractical and costly. Irena expects two-thirds will be consumed domestically by 2050 and the remainder traded internationally. Of this, half is predicted to move via pipeline — including repurposed natural gas pipelines — while the other half is predicted to move in the form of ammonia that is more energy dense and easier to liquefy.

The report suggests clean hydrogen should be prioritised for use in refineries, followed by steel manufacturing and international shipping. Electrification-based solutions were preferred for urban vehicles, short-term energy storage and residential heating.

By Aidan Lea