Biden qualifies new Russia sanctions threat

The US has prepared a strong suite of sanctions against Russia to persuade it not to invade Ukraine again, but still has work to do to persuade allies in Europe to match the US action, President Joe Biden said today.

The US course of action also depends on what steps Moscow will take, Biden said at a press conference marking his first year in office.

"It is one thing if it is a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do," Biden said. "But if they actually do what they are capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia."

Washington has accused Moscow of placing more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, and preparing to also station troops in Belarus next month under the guise of a military exercise, in preparation for a ground invasion of Ukraine. The US sanctions in the works are financial in nature, aiming to cut the largest Russian banks from the US dollar-based global financial system, but Russian oil and gas exports are a potential target as well.

"Everybody talks about how Russia has control over the the energy supply that Europe absorbs," Biden said. "Well, guess what? That money that they earned from that makes about 45pc of their economy. I don't see that as a one way street."

Russia denies plans to invade Ukraine, but rising tensions and discussion of a hypothetical invasion and threats of US sanctions have already affected European gas and oil products markets.

Biden acknowledged potential collateral damage from the imposition of US sanctions. "I want to be clear with you — the serious imposition of sanctions relative to dollar transactions and other things are going to have a negative impact on the US, as well as a negative impact on the economies of Europe and a devastating impact on Russia."

The US is working to ensure that its allies in Europe are on the same page when it comes to the threat of sanctions, he said. The US will proceed with sanctions "if there is something, that is, if Russian forces are crossing the border, killing Ukrainian fighters, etc — I think that changes everything," Biden said. "But it depends on what (Russian president Vladimir Putin) does, and to what extent we are going to be able to get total unity on the NATO front."

Despite the threat of sanctions, Biden said he expected Russia to still take some form of military action against Ukraine, prompting the White House to later add a clarification to his remarks. "President Biden also knows from long experience that the Russians have an extensive playbook of aggression short of military action, including cyberattacks and paramilitary tactics," the White House said. "And he affirmed today that those acts of Russian aggression will be met with a decisive, reciprocal, and united response."

Biden at the same time said he still hoped that US-Russian diplomacy could succeed in lowering the tensions. A round of direct US-Russian talks and broader discussions with NATO allies earlier this month accomplished little, but US and Russian foreign ministers plan to meet in Geneva, Switzerland on 21 January to continue negotiations.

In what Moscow is likely to interpret as a positive signal, Biden indicated today that he is willing to offer a compromise solution on a set of "security guarantees" Putin has asked for — the Kremlin's code for non-interference on its western borders. Moscow's demand for a written guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO is a non-starter, but "there is room to work if he wants to do that," Biden said.

"The likelihood that Ukraine is going to join NATO in the near term is not very likely, based on much more work they have to do in terms of democracy and a few other things going on," Biden said, citing opposition from some NATO members to Ukraine's admission.

By Haik Gugarats