Canola to lead Canadian crop production recovery

Canola production is projected to see the largest year-on-year recovery in Canada — with higher yields offsetting acreage losses — while a smaller year-on-year increase is forecast for wheat and barley after unseasonably hot and dry weather last year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has said.

Yields and production for all crops are expected to recover to close-to-normal levels in 2022-23 after a poor harvest in the 2021-22 marketing year (1 August-31 July) caused by a widespread drought.

Wheat

Canada's wheat exports are estimated to recover to 21.3mn t in 2022-23 from a 14-year low of 16.4mn t in the 2021-22 marketing year, rising by 30pc on the year. This is still below the 26.4mn t exported in 2020-21.

Production is forecast to increase by 44pc on the year, reaching 31.2mn t in 2022-23 from 21.7mn t in 2021-22. The country's wheat yields have been forecast to rebound to the prior five-year average, with 3.16 t/hectare (ha) estimated for 2022-23 — up by 35pc on the year but below the 3.51 t/ha reached in 2020-21.

Durum wheat production is forecast to lead the increase, with an estimated year-on-year increase of 108pc, compared with a 35pc increase for non-durum wheat. The disparity is caused by strong global demand for durum wheat in particular, prompting farmers to prioritise durum plantings over spring and winter soft wheat.

Global wheat production is expected to rise on the year in 2022-23, but AAFC noted that weather will be a crucial factor in the accuracy of its predictions, considering the current lack of moisture in many of North America's grain-producing regions.

Canola

Canada's canola production is forecast at 20.2mn t in the 2022-23 marketing year, rebounding from just 12.6mn t in 2021-22. The increase is expected on higher yields, while planted acreages are forecast to decrease on the year by 3pc to 8.8mn ha, as farmers switch to other crops. Canada's canola yields are forecast to increase by 65pc on the year, reaching 2.31 t/ha in 2022-23 — close to 2020-21 yield levels of 2.34 t/ha.

And Canada's canola exports are forecast to recover to 10mn t in 2022-23 from 5.4mn t in 2021-22, marginally below the 10.5mn t exported in 2020-21.

AAFC expects the country's canola fundamentals in 2022-23 to be contingent on growth in global biodiesel demand, global production of oilseeds, food sector demand — especially in China — and weather in global oilseed-growing regions, noting that its forecast assumes normal temperatures and moisture.

Barley

Canada's barley production is forecast to recover to 10.6mn t in 2022-23 from 6.9mn t in 2021-22, but marginally below the 10.7mn t produced in 2020-21. Yields are also forecast to increase significantly by 55pc on the year to 3.58 t/ha, compared with just 2.31 t/ha in 2021-22.

Canada's barley exports in 2022-23 are also forecast to rise by 31pc on the year to 3.4mn t, compared with 2.6mn t in 2021-22, but more than 1mn below the 4.6mn exported in 2020-21.

By Anna Sneidermane

Yields t/ha

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