Iran nuclear talks break for domestic consultations

The Vienna talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have broken up to allow delegates to return for consultations with their respective governments, with the EU and Russia saying now is the time for political decisions.

The latest round of talks to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) resumed in December, with all original parties to the deal — Iran, the US, France, Germany, China and Russia — working concurrently on issues relating to sanctions relief, Iran's nuclear activities and verification.

"Participants will go back to capitals for consultations [with] instructions to come back next week," the EU's senior envoy Enrique Mora said today. "Political decisions are needed now."

Russia's envoy to the talks Mikhail Ulyanov said these domestic consultations are needed because negotiations have reached an "advanced stage". Ulyanov earlier this week sounded upbeat about the prospects for an agreement, saying a deal by the end of February was "quite realistic". The US too has generally sounded optimistic about the course of the current round of talks, with White House Middle East adviser Brett McGurk saying yesterday that Tehran and Washington are "in the ballpark of a possible deal".

But whatever progress has been achieved is not sufficient for closing the deal, the State Department said the same day. US diplomats continue to press for direct talks with their Iranian counterparts to finalise an agreement before Tehran's progress on its nuclear programme makes restoring the JCPOA in its original form impossible. Discussions between Iran and the US have so far been taking place indirectly, with the EU acting as an intermediary, because Tehran refuses to meet face-to-face with US officials. Ulyanov this week said that could soon change.

The JCPOA began to fall apart in 2018, when then US president Donald Trump pulled out of the deal and reimposed economic sanctions on Iran. In response Tehran began to gradually ramp up its nuclear activities to a level beyond those permitted by the deal. The US sanctions made buying Iran's oil very difficult, and at one point pushed Iranian crude exports to well below 500,000 b/d from close to 2.4mn b/d previously, although shipments have picked up a little since US president Joe Biden's election in November.

Argus estimated Iranian crude exports at around 728,500 b/d in December, so a restoration of the nuclear deal in its original form could realistically add up to 1.6mn b/d of Iranian crude to global supply within the 6-9 months it would take for implementation.

By Ben Winkley and Haik Gugarats