Japan's summer demand for thermal power generation fuels may increase from a year earlier on the back of forecast higher temperatures in the western and southern parts of the country and lower nuclear power supplies.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) predicts a 40-50pc probability of temperatures during June-August this year rising above the 30-year average in all parts of Japan. By comparison, average temperatures in major cities in west and south Japan, including Osaka, Hiroshima and Naha, during June-August 2021 were lower than the long-term average. But average temperatures in Japan's north and east cities such as Sapporo, Tokyo and Nagoya during June-August 2021 were higher than the 30-year average.
This implies that the western and southern part of Japan are likely to experience a warmer summer during June-August compared with a year earlier, while the northern and eastern parts of the country may face weather conditions similar to a year ago.
The average temperature in Osaka city in western Japan's Osaka prefecture was 26.6°C during June-August 2021, compared with a long-term average of 26.8°C. Temperatures in Tokyo city averaged 25.3°C during June-August 2021, compared with the 30-year average of 24.8°C.
The operating capacity of nuclear power plants could decline to an average of 6,104MW during June-August this year from an average actual operating capacity of 8,177MW in the previous year, according to Argus' calculations based on data from Japan's Agency for Natural Resources and Energy and notices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange website. Nuclear power plants could generate a total of 13,511GWh during June-August this year, compared with 18,083GWh supplied last summer. Operable nuclear power plants are located in the western and southern regions of Japan, where summer temperatures are forecast to be higher than last year.
The beginning of June to end of July is typically the rainy season for most parts of Japan. The JMA forecasts a 40pc probability of precipitation in most areas of the country staying mostly in line with the 30-year average during the rainy season. Many cities in east, west and south Japan had more rainfall during June-July 2021 than the long-term average. This indicates that there could be less precipitation during this rainy season than in the previous year, and solar power generation may increase over the year. Japan supplied 3,784GWh of solar power during June-July 2021.
Japan's LNG consumption for power generation dropped by 8.7pc on the year to 10.8mn t during June-August 2021, according to the economy, trade and industry ministry. Coal demand rose by 1.6pc to 27mn t during the period, while fuel oil use increased by 11.1pc to 53,885 b/d.
