Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasts the La Nina weather pattern will now extend through to May, raising the chance of more heavy rainfall and flooding on the east coast that could further disrupt exports of coal, agricultural products, iron ore and LNG.
The La Nina pattern has passed its peak but strong trade winds in the western Pacific have delayed its weakening over the past two weeks, according to the BoM. This means that the pattern will continue to bring wetter weather in east and north Australia throughout the Australian autumn, which runs from March until the end of May.
This is the second time that the BoM has extended the period of La Nina influence, first from February to April and now until the end of May. Even as La Nina weakens it will continue to influence global weather and climate, the BoM said in its most recent climate driver update.
The extended period of rain could further disrupt coal exports from New South Wales (NSW), where mining firms have warned it could take weeks to recover from the flooding earlier this month. The ground is saturated in coal mining regions of NSW and Queensland, leading to increased chance of flooding, which could also affect onshore gas wells that feed LNG plants in Queensland.
The flooding has also disrupted Australian beef and grain exports, with the Port of Brisbane only just returning to more normal operations after flooding closed it on 28 February and delayed grain exports from NSW. Heavy rainfall and sodden ground could also disrupt planting, with the wheat crop due to be planted in NSW and Queensland in April and barley in May.
A La Nina pattern is often associated with a longer and more disruptive cyclone season in northern Queensland, the Northern Territory (NT) and northern Western Australia (WA).
Queensland's coal ports of Abbot Point, Dalrymple Bay and Hay Point, as well as the coal and LNG port of Gladstone, are all within the cyclone-prone region. Elevated cyclone activity in northern WA could disrupt exports from the major iron ore export hubs and significant LNG and petroleum export facilities. Cyclone Veronica, which hit the WA coast in March 2019, reduced iron ore shipments for a couple of months and forced most major producers to cut their production guidance.
Cyclones also force Australia's LNG operations in WA and the NT to suspend operations if they are within range.
