Europe eyes 42pc rise in LNG import capacity by 2026

Corrects aggregate capacity in headline and paragraph two, capacity of individual projects in paragraph seven

Europe has firm plans to upgrade its LNG import capacity by 80.7mn t/yr by the start of 2026, but global liquefaction expansions are only set to match that rise by 2025.

Europe has 16 projects that have already reached a final investment decision (FID) or are based only on the optimisation of existing infrastructure. If completed, these would increase Europe's LNG import capacity to 274mn t/yr by 2026, 42pc higher than at present.

A cumulative 23.8mn t/yr of LNG import capacity is scheduled to come on line before the end of this year, with one floating storage regasification unit (FSRU) to be installed in Finland, two in the Netherlands and another one in Turkey.

A further four FSRUs with a combined capacity of 17mn t/yr are expected to begin operations next year. Two, chartered by shipowner Hoegh LNG, are expected to be deployed to Germany, while Italian system operator Snam has secured a unit from shipowner Golar and works began in May at Greece's planned 4.3mn t/yr Alexandropoulis FSRU terminal.

Germany, which is not yet able to directly import LNG, has begun works on its two FSRUs as well as two onshore terminals at Brunsbuttel and Stade, which are expected to begin operations by 2026. The projects would take German import capacity to an aggregate 25.4mn t/yr by 2026.

German utility Uniper is set to charter two FSRUs from Greek shipowner Dynagas. One of these is to be developed further into an onshore terminal, while green hydrogen firm Tree Energy Solutions plans to build an additional onshore terminal at Wilhelmshaven by late 2025.

FIDs have been taken on these Finnish, German, Italian and Greek projects, as well as on expansions at the 7.2mn t/yr Zeebrugge terminal in Belgium, the 14.8mn t/yr Isle of Grain facility in the UK and the 4.8mn t/yr Swinoujscie terminal in Poland, all three of which are all slated for completion by 2026.

An FID has also been taken for an FSRU with import capacity of around 4.7mn t/yr at Gdansk in Poland, scheduled to come on line by 2028.

Expansion plans to outpace export growth until 2025

Europe's LNG import capacity expansions are set to exceed additional global liquefaction capacity until 2025, raising the question as to whether Europe will be able to secure sufficient LNG supplies to make full use of its new capacity.

Liquefaction capacity is expected to increase slowly this and next year before rising sharply in 2024-25, when large projects such as the 14mn t/yr LNG Canada, the US' 18.1mn t/yr Golden Pass LNG and trains 8-11 at Qatar's 33mn t/yr Ras Laffan export plant are scheduled to come on line (see graph).

Only by 2026 would new European import capacity fall below the 131mn t/yr of additional liquefaction capacity from the 15 LNG export projects worldwide that have already reached an FID.

But considerable uncertainty remains over Russia's planned 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 liquefaction project, after TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said in April that the project might be difficult to complete under sanctions.

Pouyanne has also said TotalEnergies' 13.1mn t/yr Mozambique project will play a critical role in the company's LNG strategy, but the facility is unlikely to start exports as planned in 2024. Works in the east African country have not resumed since 2020, when militant group attacks and security issues halted construction.

By Auguste Breteau

Cumulative increase in LNG capacity mn t/yr